China Tests Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile in Pacific, Testing Key Nuclear Deterrent Capabilities

China’s submarine-fired ballistic missile test into the southern Pacific on Monday offered its military leadership a valuable opportunity to evaluate some of the most complex and sensitive aspects of its developing nuclear deterrent, according to analysts and diplomats.

Commanding, controlling, and communicating with nuclear-armed submarines while striving to remain undetected present major operational challenges — concerns that are especially pressing for Chinese Communist Party leaders, who place supreme importance on the military’s political loyalty.

"This aspect is certainly something that would have been very much evaluated, besides looking at the actual technical capabilities of the missile and submarine," said Collin Koh, a security scholar at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

"There are still challenges ahead but it would seem they are getting close to an operational strike capability here...they are probably trying to demonstrate that even if they can't get into a position to hit the continental U.S., they could still target Guam and Hawaii."

The launch, which used a missile fitted with a dummy warhead, prompted criticism from regional powers. The United States described it as an intercontinental ballistic missile that landed in the southern Pacific Ocean.

Chinese state media and officials portrayed the test as a "routine" military drill that was not aimed at any specific target or country and was conducted professionally.

Dismissing some reports as "pure distortion and hype," the Chinese defence ministry told Reuters on Friday that the test complied with international law and practice.

"It should be emphasized that China's efforts to modernize its nuclear forces are intended to safeguard national strategic security and maintain global strategic stability," the defence ministry said.

It marked China’s most significant long-range ballistic missile test since September 2024, when the People’s Liberation Army fired a weapon into the southern Pacific from a mobile launcher on Hainan Island in the South China Sea.

Monday’s missile was launched from one of China’s six Type-094 nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs), according to analysts and academics. State media confirmed it came from a strategic missile submarine but did not specify the class.

Regional military attaches and analysts say China’s SSBN operations, centered on Hainan Island, are among the most closely watched parts of its military modernisation due to their critical role in building a reliable nuclear second-strike capability.

If its nuclear-armed submarines can operate undetected, China would retain the ability to retaliate even if its land-based forces were destroyed in a first strike. This is regarded as a vital consideration for Beijing, which officially maintains a no-first-use nuclear policy.

The U.S. and its allies monitor Chinese submarines through naval vessels, underwater sensor networks in strategic chokepoints, and air patrols using P-8 Poseidon aircraft equipped with advanced surveillance systems. These tracking activities are expected to increase as China’s submarine capabilities advance.

A 2022 Pentagon report noted that China had started near-continuous deterrence patrols with its SSBNs. The U.S., Russia, France, and Britain have conducted such patrols for decades, while India is developing its own SSBN program.

A new study by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists observed that, although there is no public U.S. confirmation that China’s SSBNs carry nuclear weapons on patrol, some American officials have privately indicated this is the case. The study added that "President Xi Jinping's purge of military officials - including leaders of the People's Liberation Army's rocket force - make it seem unlikely that nuclear warheads would be handed over to the military under normal circumstances".

While the precise launch location and missile type have not been officially confirmed, the ability of China’s SSBNs to slip undetected into the open ocean will be under close scrutiny. The current Type-094 class is slated for replacement by a quieter, more advanced successor now in development.

To strike the continental United States with its most advanced JL-3 submarine-launched missile, a submarine would need to move beyond the South China Sea into the western Pacific, raising the risk of detection by rival forces. The JL-3, believed capable of carrying multiple warheads, has a range of 10,000 km (6,214 miles) and was publicly displayed in a Beijing military parade in September 2025.

China’s Global Times newspaper highlighted how the test contributes to strengthening the country’s "nuclear triad" — its ability to deliver nuclear weapons from land, sea, and air platforms.

"This will compel external powers and their followers to abandon attempts aimed at forcing Chinese concessions through maximum military pressure or pre-emptive strikes, thereby fundamentally reducing the risk of large-scale conflict...," the Global Times editorial said.