THE confession came as no surprise. At a collectors' conference last fortnight, Jannath Hussain, the commissioner in charge of implementing the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) government's prohibition policy, said prohibition has been a "total failure". This came close on the heels of a demand by a majority of party legislators that Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu lift the "dry law".
But the bugle had been sounded long back when Governor Krishna Kant expressed concern over the government's failure to tighten the noose around bootleggers and exhorted Naidu to take the necessary steps. Even the septuagenarian Vavila Gopalakrishnaiah, who was at the forefront of the anti-arrack movement spearheaded by women from Dabagunta in Nellore in 1993, has resigned as chairman of the Coordination Committee over the government's inability to effectively implement the policy.
But Hussain's admission has driven the final nail into the coffin. The 16-month-old Naidu government's much trumpeted policy has not only helped increase bootlegging, but has also taken a heavy toll on the state exchequer. An annual loss of Rs 1,200 crore has put the government on the mat. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already chided Naidu and threatened to stop the overdraft facility. The only reply that the chief minister gets these days wherever he goes around with a begging bowl, be it for cyclone relief or development activities, is: "Why don't you review your prohibition policy?"
And the Telugu film industry, which was on its way to Hyderabad from Chennai, has now applied the brakes. The reason: the dry law. The state government is also losing crores of rupees worth of potential investments. NRIs are openly saying that social gatherings without liquor bottles are impossible. Admits a senior official: "Many of those who submitted their proposals so enthusiastically in the early '90s soon after the economic reforms prefer to put them in cold storage."
Although prohibition continues in Gujarat, it was done away with in Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra after failure in implementation. Illicit brew and its consumption created fresh problems for both Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, besides provoking a financial crunch. Interestingly, Andhra Pradesh has been spared a boom in illicit brew as popular liquor brands are freely finding their way into the state from across the state border.
Says the former commissioner, A.K. Mohanty, who quit after serious differences with the minister in charge implementing prohibition: "Andhra Pradesh has borders with as many as five states, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Tamil Nadu. How can any government prevent smuggling of liquor into the state with the existing manpower?"
The opposition, for its part, has lost no opportunity to highlight the TDP regime's mistakes. Says the BJP's state chief, V. Rama Rao: "NTR had no foresight, and neither does his successor Naidu. How can such a policy be implemented without drawing up an action plan to bolster manpower? Are 50,000-odd Excise Department personnel sufficient to implement it?" Party functionaries also point to the government's decision to entrust the job of implementing prohibition to the already tainted state police. Frequent skirmishes between the police and excise officials have only added to the problem.
Ironically, the liquor ban was enforced when the club or pub culture was catching on in this cosmopolitan city like wild fire. Crores of rupees were pumped in by ambitious entrepreneurs only to have their fingers burnt later. The 'dry law' has also had a cascading effect on the small-scale industries, whose very existence depended on the use of spirit and alcohol. As many as five lakh people are said to have been rendered jobless.
That the Naidu government has failed to implement the dry law is also evident from the way it has had to keep shuffling commissioners. As many as four commissioners were changed in a span of 16 months. All of them had to pay the price for unmasking guilty ruling party members, for the long list of those indulging in bootlegging is sprinkled with names of TDP leaders. Why commissioners, Naidu had even had to shuffle his colleagues. Says an IAS officer: "The prohibition policy is a failure because officials, politicians and the police have connived to help bootleggers."
Driven against the wall by administrative problems and financial worries, Naidu is reportedly trying to find an excuse to do away with prohibition. The media is already circulating stories of the proposed announcement. But Naidu is in no hurry. He wants to solicit everyone's views and later convince Raj Bhawan of the need to bail his government out from the financial mess. Naidu is also expected to request Prime Minister H.D. Deve Gowda to replace the governor, as he is a staunch supporter of prohibition.
Meanwhile, Gopalakrishnaiah has cautioned the government that history would not forgive the TDP government if it hastily retracted prohibition. As has a leading vernacular daily, which says that since the party got an overwhelming mandate on the basis of its election promises, it has no option but to go back to the people if it wants to review the policy.
The TDP, which bounced back to power under NTR's leadership, had made prohibition one of its electoral planks alongwith the Rs 2-a-kg rice scheme and subsidised power to the farming community. Ironically, while the Naidu regime could convince the people of the need for reviewing the subsidised rice scheme and power tariff, it has failed to muster courage to take a decision on the most 'costly' policy, prohibition.
The loss of Rs 1,200-crore a year on account of the 'dry law' has dried up the state finances. Once again the government is facing the prospect of losing the RBI's overdraft facility. In the past, Naidu had to run from pillar to post to satisfy the RBI by making temporary arrangements to repay the outstanding amount. But the yawning gap between revenue and expenditure has become a permanent phenomenon, as has the resource mopping exercise through taxes on various items, thus limiting Naidu's options.
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Admits Gopalakrishna Reddy, a legislator from Sri Kalahasti in Chittoor district and a new entrant in Naidu's cabinet: "Prohibition is a failure. Although it is a good policy for a good cause, the government can ill afford to continue with it, considering the state's precarious financial position." Apart from the finances, Reddy, who helped Naidu rope in a majority of the legislators to his side during his coup against NTR by providing them with shelter in a city hotel, puts up another argument: if the policy is continued, there could a serious threat from the liquor mafia. Says he: "Today they have become all powerful and are calling the shots in villages. No official is willing to listen to the elected representatives. "
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The entire opposition seems to be enjoying the pathetic plight of the TDP. While the CPI(M), the ruling party's electoral ally, wants the government to persist with its commitment to the people, the Congress is striking a "we told you so" pose. Says Andhra Pradesh Congress Committee President K. Rosaiah: "That's why our party had decided to consider the demand of agitating women by implementing prohibition in a phased manner. As the first step, the then government, headed by Kotla Vijayabhaskara Reddy, had banned arrack." Not a very comforting reminder for Naidu.
