Mass Protests And Imminent U.S Strike: Biggest Existential Challenge For Iran?

Modern Iran has witnessed several upheavals. At times, these were externally induced, as was the ouster of Mohammad Mosaddegh in 1953. At others, they were internally mobilised such as in the 1979 revolution. The Islamic Republic has also faced serious challenges since its inception but has been able to withstand them. The Iraq-Iran war, tensions with the United States, international economic sanctions and shadow war with Israel have all posed serious external threat to Iran since 1979. At the same time, internal challenges such as the 2009 Green Movement and the 2022 Mahsa Amini protests have caused serious churns but not enough to dislodge the regime.

The situation, however, has become starker since the October 7, 2023 attacks with Iran facing internal and external challenges simultaneously. Israeli strikes on the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April 2024 and the killing of Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran in July 2024 and Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah in Beirut in September 2024 in Israeli military actions were serious blows to Iran. The Israeli strikes inside Iran causing the 12-day war in June 2025 raised fears of a full-blown regional war in West Asia.

Eventually, the war ended after US intervention with US-Israel claiming destruction of much of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and enrichment facilities. Iran, on the other hand, asserted minimal damage and stated to have kept its nuclear capacity intact. Claims notwithstanding, Iran did suffer militarily as many of its top generals and nuclear scientists were killed in targeted strikes by Israel. Israel too was exposed as Iranian missiles repeatedly breached its defence.

While Iran has withstood the military challenges, its economy has suffered significantly under the international and US sanctions. The situation has worsened after the Trump 1.0 administration resorted to “maximum pressure” tactics. Sanctions on the oil and steel industries and threats of secondary sanctions harmed Iran’s external trade weakening the so-called “resistance economy.” Although Iran was able to scuttle some of the impacts by expanding its trade with China and Russia, it was not enough to overcome mounting economic challenges. As economy suffered, it created serious hardships for common Iranians, traders and small merchants who suffered due to rising inflation and cost of living.

Amidst such hardships, the continued expenditure to support militias in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and the Palestinian Territories caused anger among common Iranians. Some of this anger spilled on the streets in the form of slogans against the regime and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei during occasional protests since 2018. The COVID-19 pandemic further exposed the fragilities of the Iranian economy. The public health sector suffered causing serious damages.

The biggest and most challenging protests erupted in 2022 against mandatory hijab rule and became known as Mahsa Amini protests. Although quelled, these protests exposed the fragility of the regime and showcased the growing appetite among Iranians to stand against it. The anger against the regime and its spending on militias and proxies has reportedly magnified given the “axis of resistance” network has been so easily decimated by Israel after 2023.

The latest protests beginning as demonstrations by small shopkeepers against high cost of living have now continued for over three weeks and have expanded to become a protest movement against the economic hardships faced by common Iranians. The anger against the regime and Supreme Leader Khamenei is palpable on the streets. Police action against the protesters labelled “rioters” and “traitors” by the regime has killed of hundreds of civilians. The regime has blamed foreign and Zionist hands propelling protests to create chaos and has accused the armed protestors of killing hundreds of security personnel.

The situation is likely coming to a head as the regime led by Khamenei has resolved to quell the protests without showing any signs of negotiations, or indicating any changes or reforms. The problem is magnified as President Trump has explicitly warned that spilling of blood of protestors and civilians will invoke US action, including a possible military intervention. Although regime figures such as Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi have indicated that Iran is ready for conditional negotiations with the US, it is unclear if any back channels are currently active.

Trump’s threats acquire more seriousness given the recent special operation in Venezuela wherein President Nicolás Maduro and his wife were abducted by US special forces from the presidential palace in Caracas for trial in US court on charges of narco-terrorism against the US. Trump’s announcements that the US would now run Venezuela and control all its oil resources caused global outrage.

In the case of Iran, the US can be joined by Israel given that Benjamin Netanyahu has been itching to expand military actions against the Islamic Republic given the presumed complicity in planning and mounting the October 7 attacks. This is even more plausible given the not-so-secret US-Israeli desire for a regime change in Iran to install a friendly regime in Tehran. Geopolitically, this would end any resistance to the US-led order in West Asia.

Amidst the ongoing protests, the Islamic Republic faces one of its worst existential challenges as for the first time it is faced with a combination of a severe internal disturbance and a stern external threat. The choices for Khamenei are stark. Negotiating with the protesters risks losing pride and legitimizing US-Israeli support for them, but continuing crackdown can invite military intervention. Whatever the decision, the implications for the regime and the Islamic Republic will be extraordinary. While the situation continues to escalate, the world waits with bated breath for the next chapter to unfold in Iran.

The author is Associate Professor of Middle East Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.