India-US Trade Deal Is 'Very, Very Close'. What's At Stake?

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Curated by: Devabrata Dutta
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US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Bethany Poulos Morrison announced that the US and India are very close to finalising a historic bilateral trade agreement

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The United States and India are "very, very close" to finalising a historic bilateral trade agreement to open India's 1.4 billion-strong market to American goods on reciprocal and mutually beneficial terms. US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Bethany Poulos Morrison announced the progress Tuesday at a Foundation for India and Indian Diaspora Studies event on Capitol Hill, saying that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump were working towards a "result-oriented" relationship.

"We're not measuring (the relationship) by meeting. We're measuring it by results," Morrison said.

"When we looked at trade in February 2026, we announced the intention to finally conclude the historic trade deal. We are very, very close," she said.

To secure the pact, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer arrived in India to hold direct talks with Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. Greer's visit follows the meeting between Modi and Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in France on June 17, as well as discussions between chief negotiators held in New Delhi from June 2 to 4.

Goyal and Greer held high-level talks in New Delhi on Tuesday to revive and recalibrate the trade agreement following recent US tariff policy disruptions. The two sides aim to conclude an interim trade pact before July 24, when Washington's temporary 10% tariff on imports is scheduled to expire. Earlier, Goyal had said India and the US were likely to conclude the "very, very vibrant" first phase of the agreement by the middle of next month.

What's At Stake

Morrison outlined the economic objectives underpinning the bilateral relationship.

"The administration is driving toward the goal of Mission 500 -- the goal of achieving $500 billion in trade by 2030 -- with a real sense of urgency," she said.

Investment commitments directly support this target. At the recent SelectUSA Investment Summit, India announced $20 billion in new investment commitments, including $1.1 billion in immediate capital, which Morrison described as the "largest announcement in SelectUSA's history".

In 2025-26, the US was India's second-largest trading partner. Indian exports increased marginally by 0.92 per cent to USD 87.3 billion, while imports rose 15.95 per cent to USD 52.9 billion, narrowing the trade surplus to USD 34.4 billion from USD 40.89 billion in 2024-25.

Energy and education ties remain central to the expanding relationship.

"We are exchanging goods in American oil, gas, and coal, and both sides are exploring expanding civil nuclear cooperation under the newly enacted Shanti Act," Morrison said.

"The US-India hydrocarbon trade has expanded significantly since 2025, reaching USD 14.4 billion to date," she said. Over 330,000 Indian students in the US contribute more than USD 14 billion annually to the economy and support over 50,000 jobs.

India's proposed concessions include purchasing USD 500 billion in US energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products, and coking coal over the next five years. New Delhi also offered to eliminate or reduce tariffs on US industrial goods and agricultural products, including dried distillers' grains, red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruit, soybean oil, wine, and spirits.

 [With PTI inputs]

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