Gold prices are estimated to have increased by 42% in 2025 according to World Bank data, marking the strongest annual gain since the late 1970s.
Over this same period, Australia's gold export earnings climbed toward A$60 billion, positioning the metal to become the country's second-largest export behind iron ore.
Gold's price increase and the scale of Australia's production growth also shape how capital moves through the sector. Rising gold prices can prompt investors to seek liquidity without sacrificing long-term exposure.
"When gold prices move this sharply, financing becomes a pressure point for both investors and mine operators," says Al Christy Jr., founder and CEO of specialty finance firm EquitiesFirst. "Australia's advantage is that its mining sector can translate strong prices into bankable projects. Consistent governance and predictable permitting make it easier for capital providers like us to structure liquidity solutions with confidence."
The Macro View: When Currencies Stumble, Gold Resurfaces
The 2025 gold rally mirrors the late 1970s surge, with both periods defined by geopolitical tension and dollar weakness.
What distinguishes the current cycle is its breadth. Central banks purchased more than 1,000 tonnes of gold annually from 2022 through 2024, double the pace of the previous decade. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, sovereign buyers accelerated purchases by 28%, adding 220 tonnes despite record-high prices.
Morgan Stanley notes that gold surpassed the share of U.S. Treasuries in central bank reserves for the first time since 1996. That crossing point could signal a rebalancing in how sovereign entities perceive risk and liquidity as it relates to gold holdings.
Bank forecasts reflect these shifts, with price targets clustering between $4,400 and $5,300 per ounce for 2026. Goldman Sachs sees the metal approaching $4,900 by late 2026, while HSBC forecasts $5,000. Yet the same forecasters caution that these projections depend heavily on whether current macro conditions persist, with pullbacks possible should those dynamics shift, and fluctuations expected even as the average price rises.
Even conservative outlooks acknowledge that the conditions supporting elevated prices—persistent central-bank purchases, declining real yields, geopolitical tension—remain intact heading into 2026.
The April 2025 tariff shock that sent equity markets reeling demonstrated how quickly confidence can evaporate. Gold held. That performance reinforced its function not merely as an inflation hedge but as a counterbalance to policy uncertainty and currency instability.
Supply Meets Stability in Australia
Australia occupies a privileged position within this global repricing. Already the world's third-largest producer, the country is expanding output from 293 tonnes in 2024-25 to an estimated 369 tonnes by 2026-27. Roughly 67 tonnes of new production capacity are expected to come online within that window as mine upgrades and extensions reach completion.
That expansion occurs against a backdrop of constrained global supply. CRU Consulting projects global gold production will peak at roughly 3,250 tonnes in 2025 before facing a "cliff" as reserves deplete, ore grades decline, and aging mines close. Jurisdictional risks compound the challenge. West African nations like Mali and Burkina Faso have nationalized operations, deterring foreign investment. China, the largest producer, faces modest reserves relative to production rates. Russia is subject to geopolitical pressures that limit expansion.
Australia offers what many jurisdictions cannot: regulatory predictability, established infrastructure, and the ability to operationalize projects faster than most competitors.
Australian gold export earnings rose 42% to A$47 billion in 2024-25, with projections of A$60 billion in 2025-26.
Australian Mining Operations
The last major gold rally, which peaked in 2011-2013, ended poorly for miners. The industry took $129 billion in write-downs following the correction, according to a McKinsey report. Aggressive M&A programs, unchecked spending, and operational inefficiency squandered what should have been a golden era. Gold reserves declined by 26% between the peak and 2017 as companies slashed exploration budgets to preserve cash.
Today's cycle could be structurally different. Exploration budgets have increased, but producers are directing most spending toward lower-risk brownfield projects rather than speculative greenfield ventures. Major producers increased exploration spending by 6% year-over-year to just over $3 billion in 2024.
Junior explorers have returned to the market after years of subdued activity. With consolidation at the producer level making new acquisitions scarce, institutional and retail investors are turning attention to earlier-stage companies with projects in proven Australian gold provinces.
Falcon Metals' managing director Tim Markwell told Australian Mining that the current moment is "a very close second" to the 1850s gold rush for exploration opportunity. Magmatic Resources' managing director David Richardson noted that juniors typically lag majors by three to six months in recovery cycles, but that shift appears underway.
When gold rallies, major producers recover first. Investors gradually move down the value chain as confidence builds. That progression is now visible across Australia's mining sector, where junior explorers with projects in Victoria's Bendigo goldfield and Western Australia's greenstone belts are attracting fresh investment.
The Liquidity Problem in a Rising Market
The gold rally presents investors with a familiar dilemma: how to build or adjust positions without exiting longer-term holdings.
Alternative financing has emerged as one response. Equity-backed financing, or structures that allow holders of public equities to obtain capital against their equity holdings, has gained attention in the market.
"When markets are moving as quickly as they have been, liquidity can become an asset in its own right," says Christy, whose firm Equities First Holdings specializes in equity-backed financing. The company's profile highlights its focus on providing capital solutions to shareholders globally.
With rate cuts expected in both Australia and the U.S. over the coming year, the opportunity cost of holding gold has declined, potentially strengthening the case for the metal as a long-term store of value. The challenge is matching conviction with flexibility: holding positions long enough to capture structural trends while maintaining liquidity to adapt to shorter-term changes. Industry commentary suggests growing interest in such approaches among sophisticated investors. Media coverage of alternative finance providers has expanded as these solutions gain traction.
Australia's Place in the Global Picture
Australia's expansion within the gold market is not isolated. It reflects a broader reordering of commodity flows, reserve allocation, and capital deployment. Central banks are accelerating purchases. Western investors are returning to gold ETFs after years of outflows. Production constraints are tightening globally even as demand broadens.
Australia, with its combination of production capacity and regulatory predictability, has positioned itself to benefit from a rally that reflects a fundamental reassessment of value in an uncertain global economy.
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