You will have to dig deep into yourself to get excited about the World Cup in its first month, for the eight teams for the quarter-finals choose themselves. From Group A, Australia, Pakistan, New Zealand and Sri Lanka are virtually already there—Zimbabwe, Canada and Kenya can’t really knock one of them out. In Group B, India, South Africa, England and West Indies are most likely to advance—the other three teams are Bangladesh, Ireland and the Netherlands. Perhaps Bangladesh can spring a surprise, at the expense of the West Indies. Basically, that’s the sole uncertainty for one month—whether Bangladesh will qualify.
From the quarter-finals, the knock-out stage begins—you lose, you are out. The current knock-out system was in place in 1996 too; the top eight Test nations qualified, which rendered the group stage just a warm-up for the big teams.
In 1999, the Super Six stage (top three from two groups played against each other) was introduced to ensure that the four most consistent teams qualified for the semi-finals. Its variant, the Super Eight, was discarded after 2007 because cricket’s biggest market—India—became disinterested after both India and Pakistan were knocked out in the first round. The tournament barely limped along after that.
The return to knockout after the group stage means the Cup is likely to meander in its desultory schedule till March 23, when the quarter-finals begin.
