A Big If In Its Ifs And Buts Tides

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has espoused the virtues of turning every adversity into an opportunity. As campaigning for the assembly polls in Assam, Kerala, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry gains momentum, the Congress too is hoping to test Modi’s ‘opportunity in adversity’. And the party has no dearth of adversities, after Modi displaced one Congress government after another since 2014.

Adding to the Congress’s unending list of hardships have been its leadership crisis, a diminishing ability to dictate terms of engagement with allies, ideological confusion, and the perception that Brand Nehru-Gandhi has lost its mass appeal.

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As it goes to battle, the Congress may be hoping the talisman that has worked for Modi might as well work for it. In Assam and Kerala, the Congress is the principal claimant for power against the incumbents, while in Pondicherry, it hopes to reverse the recent embarrassment of losing its government due to defections days before completing its five-year term. A fringe player in Tamil Nadu for decades, it’s once again piggybacking M.K. Stalin’s DMK, and has grudgingly settled to contest its smallest share of seats—25 out of 234—since 2006. In Bengal, the Congress is a marginal player. Its alliance with the Left and Islamic cleric Abbas Siddiqui’s Indian Secular Front (ISF) was written off even before the partners sat down to discuss seat-sharing.

Congress apparatchiks believe that a victory will afford the beleaguered party and its high command—interim chief Sonia Gandhi, Wayanad MP Rahul Gandhi and AICC general secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra—an opportunity to counteract the catastrophes. “Our prime focus is to stop the BJP from winning because we have seen enough of its ugly misuse of power. But a Congress victory is important to enthuse our workers…show that our party has not given up the fight, that we are the sole national alternative to the BJP,” M. Veerappa Moily, the party’s election observer for Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry, says.

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The Congress is currently in an overdrive to push Rahul (and also Priyanka) to the vanguard of the election campaign. Rahul has been focusing on the southern states, hoping to woo the electorate—if not with his fits of aggression pointedly directed at Modi, the BJP and the RSS, then at least with his fitness. What’s giving Team Rahul sleepless nights is the party’s prospect in Kerala, a state known to vote out its government every five years. “There isn’t any visible anti-incumbency against the Pinarayi Vijayan-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government. The recent local body polls indicated as much. After the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) swept the Lok Sabha polls and Rahul became a Lok Sabha MP from the state, we thought the trend will hold. But that doesn’t seem to be the case,” says a party leader from Kerala.

Kerala was a house divided for the Congress. Things have gone worse with leaders like former chief minister Oommen Chandy, state unit chief Mullappally Ramachandran, Leader of Opposition Ramesh Chennithala and Tharoor feeling slighted by “Rahul’s over-reliance” on party general secretary K.C. Venugopal. Party veteran P.C. Chacko quit the Congress earlier this week citing factionalism.

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Where the Congress seems visibly optimistic is Assam. “Everyone had written off the Congress, but the gap between the BJP and Congress is narrowing now. We are confident the Congress and our allies will form the government in Assam,” says party MP Gaurav Gogoi, son of former CM Tarun Gogoi, who died in December. The party’s Assam in-charge Jitendra Singh and its poll observer, Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel, have reached out to all state leaders. Baghel got prominent leaders to launch public outreach programmes. An extra push came with Priyanka campaigning in Assam.

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A revival of fortunes will help the Nehru-Gandhi family settle the Congress’s leadership question decisively in Rahul’s favour in June when the party holds its presidential election. A good show in the assembly polls may even help the Congress retain its dominant position among opposition parties. Clearly, its current adversities provide ample opportunities—even if all possible eventualities hinge on one word: IF.