ELECTIONS '09
The Bharat Hedge Fund
Outlook has undertaken thisexercise at considerable risk of getting it wrong! We asked our statebureaus/correspondents to come up with an estimated tally from their region.Many were hesitant for the mandate is so fractured, contests so closely fought,it's risky to attempt even intelligent guesses. But we persuaded them to takethe plunge. In the spirit of the poll season, we give you the Outlookpredictions:
| States | Total | Cong | UPA Allies | Third Front | Other Parties | NDA Allies | BJP | |
| Andhra Pradesh | One of the most closely contested three-cornered contests. | 42 | 17 | TDP+: 21 | PR: 4 | |||
| Assam | The presence of a Muslim party, AUDF, cuts into the Cong voteshare. | 14 | 4 | 2 | AGP: 4 | 4 | ||
| Bihar | The NDA makes massive gains, riding on Nitish Kumar’s image. | 40 | 3 | RJD+: 9 | JD(U): 19 | 9 | ||
| Chhattisgarh | BJP CM Raman Singh’s grip over the state is firm, ruling party to lose only a few. | 11 | 3 | 8 | ||||
| Delhi | The Congress citadel holds firm under the stewardship of Sheila Dikshit. | 7 | 6 | 1 | ||||
| Goa | Once again, in this small state the two parties are equally poised. | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Gujarat | Narendra Modi’s popularity will help the BJP make small gains but the Congress does have support in rural and tribal areas. | 26 | 10 | 16 | ||||
| Haryana | The BJP would have fared better if it had not tied up with Om Prakash Chautala’s INLD. | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| Himachal Pradesh | The Congress loses out. No real anti-incumbency against the BJP regime in the state. | 4 | 1 | 3 | ||||
| J&K | A significant moment would be the victory of a separatist, like Sajjad Lone. | 6 | 2 | NC:2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Jharkhand | The BJP will not only hold its ground, it’s also set to make gains. | 14 | 2 | JMM: 2 | 10 | |||
| Karnataka | Close contests in 12 seats indicates results can swing any which way. | 28 | 10 | JD(S): 4 | 14 | |||
| Kerala | Anti-incumbency, the ruling Left’s unpopular postures etc will make sure their sweep last time isn’t repeated. | 20 | 12 | 1 | LDF: 7 | |||
| Madhya Pradesh | CM Shivraj Singh Chauhan remains popular so modest losses for the saffron party. | 29 | 8 | 21 | ||||
| Maharashtra | The battle here is neck-and-neck although the Congress-NCP has its nose ahead. | 48 | 13 | NCP: 13 | SS: 12 | 10 | ||
| Orissa | New Third Front candidate Naveen Patnaik fights assembly and LS after ditching BJP. | 21 | 8 | BJD: 10 | 3 | |||
| Punjab | A strong anti-incumbency wave against Sukhbir Badal will help the Congress. | 13 | 9 | SAD: 2 | 2 | |||
| Rajasthan | After its defeat in the assemble polls last year, the BJP has recovered some ground | 25 | 13 | 12 | ||||
| Rest of Northeast: | Local factors; P.A. Sangma of NCP trying to cut into Cong influence. | 11 | 5 | Left:2 | 2 | 2 | ||
| Tamil Nadu: | If the pro-Jayalalitha mood builds into a wave, all bets are off | 39 | 6 | DMK+: 7 | AIADMK+: 26 | |||
| Uttar Pradesh | There is a great undercurrent of support for the Congress but the party is unlikely to convert it into seats | 80 | 15 | SP: 23 BSP: 27 | LD:2 | 13 | ||
| Uttarakhand | The BJP’s B.C. Khanduri will harness goodwill for the candidates, despite infighting. | 5 | 2 | 3 | ||||
| Union Territories | Save for the isolated case, UTs tend to go with the party ruling in Delhi. | 6 | 5 | 1 | ||||
| West Bengal | After 30 years, the Left bastion is beginning to crumble. | 42 | 7 | TMC: 11 | 23 | 1 | ||
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| 543 | 169 | 36 | 93 | 68 | 39 | 138 | ||
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