Feline Relics

Angry and anguished, 38-year-old Raj Thackeray has smashed the cardinal canon of the Shiv Sena: no one shall question or criticise the party chief. In declaring his independent political future, Raj not only raised doubts about Bal Thackeray's choice of successor but also let his uncle know that family bonds would now be secondary to political ambitions.

For good measure, Raj declared to thousands of supporters outside his Shivaji Park home last week: "Balasaheb was, is and will remain my deity...my grouse is against the pimps around him, the coterie of clerks who have taken a 'supari' to finish the Sena. I resign from all posts." Raj should have faced disciplinary action right away but cousin and working president Uddhav Thackeray preferred to play the cat-and-mouse game.

The tumult, or split, impacts the state's political landscape in many ways. For one, the Sena is no longer the monolith it once used to be. If Raj leaves or is expelled, and takes his flock with him, Uddhav is free to reconstitute the party, giving it a new direction. "It's no longer enough to speak only for the Marathi people in Mumbai," says a senior Sena leader. Uddhav's relatively inclusive campaigns were neutralised by the xenophobic sons-of-soil programmes that Raj undertook, leaving the Sainiks confused.

The most significant impact though is on the Congress and the NCP—jointly and independently. They now face an emaciated opposition. The Congress' strategy to cannibalise the Sena is already paying rich dividends. The NCP, also in consolidation mode, stands to gain the most. Its constituencies are similar to the Sena's, their programmes have the same regional flavour, their futures inter-linked. Also, Raj enjoys a great rapport with NCP supremo Sharad Pawar.

Raj and Uddhav present a study in contrast. Their individual characteristics complement. Ironically, that's what the party needs now if it has to keep its political identity intact. Militant and flamboyant, Raj is a natural leader who groomed the Bharatiya Vidyarthi Sena. Uddhav is sophisticated, and the typical backroom leader. He wants the Sena to get out of its thug hangover, Raj wants to go back to the streetfights. In the Sena, there's space for only one of them. Raj is aggrieved for being denied an equal share in leadership, Uddhav is insecure to share it with him. The split was to happen, the question was when. Narayan Rane's revolt in July and his drubbing the Sena in the Malwan bypoll last month offered Raj the trigger.

But being a Thackeray, Raj cannot take the Rane route. His future, he believes, lies in creating his own outfit on the original Sena lines, with tacit support from new political mentors. Easier said, even with support from those disgruntled with Uddhav. Yet, the first step may come soon—a loose formation within the ambit of the Sena that Raj is planning, almost daring the party to expel him.

An irked Thackeray said: "The Sena isn't anybody's private property." He is the court of last appeal, the only one who can persuade Raj to return. But father has backed his son and nephew must make his peace. Thrice earlier, Raj sulked and Thackeray brokered peace but it didn't last. This time around, Raj is beyond any emotional appeal. Or so it seems.