Congress-BJP Lock Horns In Himachal

The hills in Himachal are gradually getting warmer as political temperature soars ahead of the Lok Sabha elections scheduled for June 1—the last phase of the polling in the country, four days before the counting of votes. With almost a month to go, the ruling Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are gearing up for a two-way battle for political dominance.

Though Himachal Pradesh has just four Lok Sabha seats— Shimla, Hamirpur, Kangra and Mandi—this election is going to be a significant one, especially with the entry of some interesting new faces. Kangana Ranaut, the BJP’s ‘brand queen’, is set to begin her political innings from Mandi. She faces state public works minister Vikramaditya Singh—a two-time MLA from Shimla (Rural) and an inheritor of the royal dynasty.

Singh’s name cropped up during the party's Coordination Committee meeting, chaired by Chief Minister Sukhwinder Singh Sukhu, only after Kangana began campaigning in Mandi. After her rallies started getting a good response, the Congress decided to field Singh from Mandi, in place of his mother, Pratibha Singh, the party’s sitting MP from Mandi. The ruling party’s objective is clear—to encash on the political legacy of Virbhadra Singh—the six-time Chief Minister and erstwhile “Raja” of Rampur-Bushahr, who had also been a three-time MP from Mandi.

The contest has become quite challenging for the BJP, especially with some of the comments made by Kangana drawing criticism. Addressing a rally in Manali, while commenting on Singh, Kangana had said: “Yeh tumhare baap-dada ki riyasat nahin hai, ki tum mujhe dara, dhamkake vapis bhej doge.” (This is not the estate of your father or grandfather that you will threaten me and send me back).

Internal turmoil in the Congress

The Congress managed to return to power in the 2022 Assembly elections, winning 40 seats in the 68-member House, but the party is facing internal turmoil. A political crisis arose during the recently held polling for the Rajya Sabha elections when nine MLAs, including six Congress rebels and three independents, voted in favour of BJP candidate Harsh Mahajan, bringing the 15-month-old Sukhu government on the verge of collapse.

The focus of the Congress, right now, is on the by-polls being held simultaneously in six assembly constituencies. These had fallen vacant following the disqualification of its rebels, who cross-voted for the BJP in the Rajya Sabha contest. All the six disqualified rebels have now joined the BJP and also been given tickets to contest the by-polls. The Congress, thus, views the June 1 election as an opportunity to overcome the threat of instability.

A Challenge for Sukhu

For Sukhu, elections in Himachal are going to be a litmus test, not alone to save his government but also to prove his leadership under extremely challenging circumstances. 

A first-time Chief Minister, Sukhu was chosen based on the strength of his organisational skills as well as his proximity to Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi. But now he is facing opposition from his MLAs and ministers. Singh had also revolted against him and resigned, but later agreed to stay put in the Cabinet.

Currently, Sukhu has the backing of 34 MLAs in the Assembly—one less to the halfway mark. He desperately needs to get a few MLAs by his side for some stability. Also, how the Congress fairs in the Lok Sabha elections is also crucial for the Sukhu government, even though he keeps claiming that the BJP’s bid to topple the government has been foiled and that the poll outcome will have no bearing on the government. “There is no threat to my government. The people had elected us for five years. The government will complete its full term,” he has said. 

However, former BJP chief minister Jairam Thakuris confident about the party winning all the four Lok Sabha seats and six by-polls due to the prevalent Modi wave and the crisis that the Congress government continues to face. Political experts believe that the Modi factor will play to the BJP's advantage in the state that has a strong deity culture. Also, the presence of the Army will help stoke the nationalist sentiments. “When the election results will be announced on June 4, two governments will be formed in the country—one under Narendra Modi in Delhi, the NDA government, and the other in Himachal Pradesh under the BJP,” he says.

Rebels Vs Contestants

Congress rebel Sudhir Sharma, the former AICC secretary, is contesting on the BJP ticket from Dharamshala. While Ravi Thakur is contesting from Lahaul and Spiti, Inder Dutt Lakhanpal from Barsar, Chaitanya Sharma from Gagret, Davinder Kumar Bhutto from Kutlehar, Rajinder Rana—the former PCC working president—is fighting from Sujanpur.

Sujanpur is an important assembly seat in Hamirpur—the home district of Prem Kumar Dhumal, the former Chief Minister, and Anurag Thakur, the Information and Broadcasting minister. Rana shot into fame in 2017 when he defeated Dhumal –the then BJP chief ministerial face. As a result, Dhumal lost the opportunity to become the chief minister and five-time MLA Jairam Thakur benefited from it.

But Rana—now back in the BJP fold—is set to queer the pitch for the chief minister, who also hails from Hamirpur. Dhumal has extended his support to Rana, now donning the saffron cap.

Three independents, who also voted for Mahajan, the newly elected Rajya Sabha member, have also joined the BJP, quitting their state assembly membership.

They are lobbying hard to get their resignations accepted by the Speaker, Kuldeep Pathania, to pave the way to by-polls in their constituencies. The MLAs have also filed cases in the High Court, held public protests and even met the Governor, Shiv Pratap Shukla, demanding the acceptance of their resignations.

The BJP’s game plan is simple, says experts. It wants to raise its strength in the House and ensure that the Congress government gets reduced to a minority so that it collapses. It's a double whammy for Chief Minister Sukhu—one, to get enough numbers in the House to make the government stable, and second, and to win the Lok Sabha elections.

Will the Sukhu government complete its term?

The bigger question that the forthcoming poll will answer is—whether the Sukhu government will complete its full term. The Congress government is battling hard to maintain its tenuous grip on power. Sukhu feels the “power-hungry BJP is trying to destabilise an elected government in the state”.

He said at a rally: “The BJP is playing a dirty game to overthrow an elected government. It could not return to power through votes in the 2022 poll and is now eyeing through notes (cash). Six rebels were paid Rs 15 crore each. We are investigating the entire issue. People must know the reason behind six Congress MLAs betraying the party.”

Political analysts feel the ongoing turmoil in Congress is the result of an internal power struggle and clash of political ambitions. This may not be the first time when Congress faced rebellion; just that the scale was alarming. Even former Chief Minister Virbhadra Singh faced opposition, both in the government as well as from party members. He survived due to his stature and political maneuverability and managed to complete the term.

Sukhu’s rise to the chief ministerial position after the demise of Virbhadra Singh is credited to his organisational skills as the president of the NSUI, state youth congress and later as the PCC president.

Between 2013 and 2019, when he was the PCC president, he navigated through an uncomfortable time with Virbhadra Singh and managed to survive. Singh’s bid to get him removed from the post did not work till he remained the chief minister.

The current crisis has roots in his attempt to consolidate his position as Chief Minister. This left many Congress MLAs sulking, brooding and even systematically sidelined and humiliated. The unease grew strong among the cabinet ministers. The crisis is still brewing and the BJP may be looking for the right opportunity to strike against the government after the elections are over.

The BJP has already announced all its candidates, while the Congress has just decided on two seats—Mandi and Shimla (reserve). The BJP has fielded information and broadcasting minister Anurag Thakur from Hamirpur for his fifth election, Suresh Kashyap, a two-time MP from Shimla and Rajeev Bhardwaj, the party's vice-president and a brahmin face, from Kangra. The Congress is yet to finalise its candidates for Kangra and Hamirpur, as well as for the six assembly seats.

After having fielded PWD minister Singh in Mandi and Vinod Sultanpuri another sitting MLA from Shimla, the party is trying to convince Deputy Chief Minister Mukesh Agnihotri to contest against Anurag Thakur. First-time MLA and HP Tourism board Chairman R S Bali is being tipped for Kangra as per speculations.

In 2014 and 2019, the BJP had won all four seats due to the Modi wave but in 2021, the party lost Mandi in the by-poll to Pratibha Singh. The BJP is once again confident of winning all four seats due to the Modi factor and Hindutva card. Launching Kangana, who calls herself Bolloywood’s Hindutva voice and a nationalist, is also a part of the BJP's well-thought-out game.

Ironically, in 2022-23, when the Congress had formed its government, Sukhu, during his election rallies in Karnataka, claimed that the Congress had defeated Hindutva forces in a predominantly Hindu-populated state. Now, the Congress is feeling the poll heat on the issue after Ranaut taking the pitch for the BJP at Mandi.