OUR last hope is the judiciary. Only an adverse verdict from the courts will enable us get rid of this man," said a bitter Congress leader after the fruitless meeting of the party's working committee on July 12. The sun had long set as the dispirited dissidents came out of the meeting. But 'old man' P.V. Narasimha Rao was still in the Congress saddle, skilfully sidestepping demands that he quit the presidentship of the 111-year old party.
The meeting had been held in the shadow of the biggest crisis faced by the Congress president since he took over the party five years ago. Taking immediate cognisance of a deposition by Pickle King Lakhubhai Pathak in a cheating case against self-styled god-man Chandraswami, Chief Metropolitan Magistrate Prem Kumar had made the former prime minister a co-accused in the case, charged him under sections 120 and 420 of the Indian Penal Code, and issued summons asking him to appear in court by July 24.
Even as the legal implications of the development were being hotly debated, the gaggle of Congress dissidents spearheaded by Rajesh Pilot, K. Karunakaran, Balram Jak-har and Ghulam Nabi Azad, were convinced that the moment to deliver the final blow had arrived. Rao had survived a plethora of charges against himself, and had even managed to stave off the attacks which came in the wake of the party's worst ever electoral performance under his stewardship. It seemed hard to believe that even the master manipulator would be able to survive the explosion triggered off by the wheelchair-bound NRI. For, he had exposed in no uncertain terms the nexus between the Congress president and Chandraswami, who is currently languishing in Delhi's Tihar jail, on the very charges now levelled against Rao by the judicial officer.
On the same evening the CMM's order was pronounced, the dissident Congress leaders made their intentions clear. They told Rao unequivocally in an informal meeting of the CWC members convened by him that he must quit and pave the way for a new man to take over. Rao, though dazed by the unexpected turn of events, had not lost his wiles. He had already started consultations with legal experts like Kapil Sibal, and managed to earn a short reprieve by convening a formal meeting of the CWC on the coming Friday, July 12, and by indicating that he would be moving the High Court to get the offending portion of the CMM's orders quashed.
By Friday, however, Rao had not moved the High Court. Instead, he tried the familiar orchestration of support from various fora ofthe party. First, there was a move by avowed loyalists like former minister Girija Vyas to get the signatures of Congress MPs to express solidarity with their beleaguered leader. The move was given up when few MPs seemed inclined to sign. Then there was the meeting of the executive of the Congress Party in Parliament. The CPP had come to the aid of Rao on every occasion when he had been in trouble in the past, including the shockwaves created by Harshad Mehta's charges that Rao had accepted one crore rupees as a bribe. But this time, the move was stymied by an alert Prithviraj Chauhan, who is from the Sharad Pawar camp. Even as Janardhana Poojary made a feeble attempt to get the resolution adopted, Chauhan pointed out that the term of the CPP executive had lapsed with that of the last Lok Sabha, and the current executive could not claim to be speaking on behalf of the new MPs.
Poojary, ever the loyalist, was also subdued when some members of the executive demanded that a full meeting of the CPP be convened at the earliest to discuss the issue threadbare. Traditionally the CPP meeting is convened within the first few days of any new session of Parliament, but hounded by a host of problems, Rao has desisted from calling a meeting of the larger forum.
Meanwhile, the rebels had been sharpening their knives. And they had been bolstered by the arrival of former Kerala chief minister and CWC member A.K. Antony, who had made it a point to be in the capital for the crucial CWC meeting though the assembly session in Thiruvananthapuram was starting on the very same day. Several senior Congress leaders, including Ashok Gehlot, Ahmed Patel and Suresh Kalmadi, called on Antony in Kerala House on July 12 morning, and later confabulations were held with Pilot and Karunakaran. The opinion seemed to be veering towards getting Antony named as Rao's successor.
But too often in the past the dissidents' boats have been rocked at the last moment by a man called Sharad Pawar, the Maratha strongman who was largely responsible for Arjun Singh's crusade for 'one man one post' ending in a damp squib at the AICC's Surajkund session three years ago. He was used once again to win Rao a short reprieve. Just a couple of hours before the slated CWC meeting, Pawar claimed he had won an assurance from Rao that he would step down, and called the key dissidents for a short meeting at his aide Prafulla Patel's house, where he was staying.
Pawar, in his own oblique style, made it clear that he was not in favour of forcing Rao to step down, but indicated that an informal understanding that would satisfy everybody could be arrived at. The modus operandi for a smooth succession had also to be decided. The formal CWC meeting which followed turned out to be a tame session for two reasons: the dissidents, without the backing of Pawar, were not sure of being able to force the pace of the 'Remove Rao' plan. Also, the southern leaders, particularly A.K. Antony, were not in favour of "humiliating the former prime minister". Rao had to be provided a graceful exit, was their argument. Finally, there was no real discussion on the only agenda the dissidents wanted to dwell on. The unofficial understanding was that Rao would step down on his own after he had got his due from the High Court, which he would move next week. It was decided to hold another informal meeting of the CWC on Tuesday, July 16, in which Rao would not be present.
The CWC meeting ended rather abruptly, leaving most of the dissidents spluttering in disbelief. As far as Pilot and Karunakaran were concerned, Sharad Pawar was the villain of the piece—they vowed they would never trust him again. They also vowed that their campaign to remove Rao and replace him with "an elected member of the CWC" would continue. There were also murmurs of a silent deal between Rao and Pawar and two formulae were mentioned in this connection. One visualised a scenario in which Rao, after getting the HighCourt to exonerate him, contines as Congress president only to vacate the leadership of the Congress in Parliament and offer it to Pawar. The other scenario was for Rao to get his own nominee among the loyalists—Janardhana Poojary or Sitaram Kesri—appointed as Congress chief. As far as Rajesh Pilot (left) is concerned, Sharad Pawar is the villain of the piece. He vowed never to trust him again and that the campaign against Rao would continue.
But most senior Congress leaders, among them Antony and Vyalar Ravi, are convinced that though the storm has passed, another could be building up. For the moment, all eyes are on the courts. If the courts decline to quash the CMM's order making Rao a co-accused with Chandraswami and Mamaji in the Lakhubhai Pathak fraud case, there is nothing that can save Rao. And in that case, the consensus could build around Antony, the low-profile leader, and one of the few seniors with a clean image.
Pilot and Karunakaran are determined to push for Rao's ouster even if the courts do not act against him in the Pathak case. They say there is already an FIR pending against him in the JMM MPs bribery case. Besides, of course, his uninspiring leadership led the party to its electoral rout in the last Lok Sabha elections. A senior leader from Kerala is convinced Rao will have to go, no matter which way the courts decide. "We want to make it easy and graceful for him. A bitter exit would only further spoil the image of the party. But if he continues to resist, Congress could be headed for serious trouble. There are many who are so angry with him they could split the party," he said.
But all that must remain in the realm of speculation. Too often in the past it has seemed like curtains for Rao. But the man has always managed to stave off the crises. And there is the school of thought in the Congress which believes that Rao could yet have another occasion to laugh at his opponents, and continue as Congress president, strengthened largely by the fact that his opponents will find it difficult to find a successor. But then, almost everyone is convinced that the reprieve can only be temporary. For nemesis is catching up with the wily fox of Indian politics. It is only a matter of time. He cannot hang in there for ever.
