- A Congress government supported by the Third Front. This can only happen if Mulayam and Pawar agree to Sonia as PM.
- A Third Front PM with Congress support. This has failed spectacularly in the past.
- Mid-term elections.
A section of the Congress, headed by Ghulam Nabi Azad and Arjun Singh, are keen to take advantage of the momentum and advocate elections instead of cobbling together a rag-tag coalition. "Our secular allies have a problem with Sonia's foreign origin. Forget PM, they are not even willing to accept her as leader of the Opposition," admits a senior Congressman. He points out that whenever Sonia chairs a meeting of Opposition parties, Mulayam and Pawar are conspicuously absent. But when the Left calls a meeting, all attend. Says cpi(m) leader Somnath Chatterjee: "There is generally a good response when I call a meeting. But there is a lot of reservation between the SP and the Congress. Two of our Left partners are also unwilling to sit with the Congress."
Agrees Amar Singh, "Sonia is part of the problem," adding: "We may be the bad boys but on key issues we vote along with the Congress led by Sonia. Unlike Mayawati."
However, by tacit consent, the Opposition has decided that the best way to capitalise on the Tehelka tapes is to discredit this government instead of trying to form one of their own. This will also give the Congress ample time to woo possible allies as advocated in its recently drafted political resolution, which states "the Congress will play a proactive role in forming alliances". But with assembly elections due in Kerala and West Bengal—where it will be directly fighting the Left—"this is not quite the right time to proactively woo the Left," says a party strategist. As for the SP, Scindia has revived his ties with Amar Singh. The two had fallen out two years ago. "Madhavrao has been close to me and will be close. Because of hectic schedules, we have not been able to meet each other in the last two years, that's all," says Amar Singh. However, Congressmen are not sure if Scindia will use this renewed friendship to strike a deal for Sonia, or if he'll seek SP support for his own candidature as PM.
But Congressmen contend that Sonia's performance is improving in direct correlation with her acceptability. And with the party seemingly all set to win two of the four states going to polls (Assam and Kerala)—to say nothing of forming a coalition government in Tamil Nadu—things are certainly looking up. "She may not be the leader of a coalition but she will be the leader of a ruling party," says a party MP. And that's about as optimistic as a Congressman can get.
So Near, Yet...
She's seen as the biggest obstacle to a Congress-led coalition, but the party won't ditch Sonia
So Near, Yet...
So Near, Yet...
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