Laloo On A Tricky Wicket

The increasing prospect of Laloo being chargesheeted in the animal husbandry scam is sapping the confidence of the chief minister. His nervousness is apparent in a new-found religiosity that has become the talk of political circles. Laloo’s tension has been unmitigated by puja-paath or the myriad ‘lucky stones’ he has taken to wearing. A recent visit to the Thabe shrine in Gopalganj failed to turn his luck: he wound up fracturing his foot while leaping off a tractor during Dussehra celebrations. A prolonged spell of vegetarianism—quite a feat for a man who loves his meat and fish—failed to improve matters.

A crop of scams, totalling Rs 1,800 crore at a conservative estimate, and an indifferent electoral showing have provided disgruntled elements within his party a chance to hit out at Laloo. "The chief minister who is also the finance minister cannot be absolved of his responsibility regarding the fodder scam," declared MLA and former assembly speaker Ghulam Sarwar.

 State ministers, who once stood in his presence and rushed to hand him spittoons, now agree that the ‘raja’ must resign if chargesheeted. Health Minister Mahabir Prasad Yadav and Rural Development Minister Ramai Ram have already demanded his resignation. The latter has become a rallying point for dissidents after he was removed from the presidentship of the state JD.

Alienated by his high-handedness and over-centralisation, nine of the 22 ministers are believed to be keen on Laloo’s ouster. A member of the cabinet close to him said: "When the chargesheet comes, the chief minister will go. So let us talk of replacement and not of dissidence".

Laloo’s weakening grip over the electorate was manifested in the Lok Sabha elections (the Janata Dal won only 24 of the 54 seats in the state) and recently in the assembly bypolls (it lost four of the 10 seats). The defection of Nitish Kumar in particular seems to have dented the Kurmi vote-bank.

What’s worse for Laloo is that he has few friends left in Delhi. The appointment of JD MPs, Kanti Singh and Devendra Prasad Yadav, to plum ministerial posts upset even Laloo loyalists among the MPs. Chandradeo Prasad Verma had even threatened to quit. The dissidents’ strings are now being pulled from Delhi. Far from being neutralised by his appointment as JD’s working president, Sharad Yadav is fishing in Bihar’s troubled waters. Railway Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, too, is an alternate power centre. Laloo’s national ambitions may have proved his undoing: by spending all his time in Delhi, he gave dissidence a chance to build up in Bihar while gaining little at the Centre.

By and large, the dissidence is still subterranean as few MLAs are willing to come out openly. "Once Laloo is chargesheeted, believe me, the majority of MLAs will turn against him," said a minister. The signs are already there: last week, Laloo loyalist and state party chief Kamal Paswan was forced to abandon a block-level campaign committee meeting in Muzaffarpur following a clash between pro-and anti-Laloo factions.

EVEN friends agree that while Laloo has a genius for vote-catching, he has failed as an administrator despite a commitment to social justice. Gimmicks—like feeding beggars and setting up ‘cowherd’ schools—no longer enthuse the electorate. He is also noted for going back on spur-of-the-moment promises, like distributing dhotis and sarees to the poor. "Laloo loves scattering largesse like a feudal monarch, with no idea of where the money will come from," said an exasperated bureaucrat.

The unkindest cut of all was dealt by the Left. The CPI-CPM sponsored an anti-corruption rally in Gandhi Maidan, Patna on November 7. The rally was a wash-out in terms of public response—barely 20,000 people were mobilised—but effectively put across the message that the Left is distancing itself from Laloo and the fodder scam. However, Left Front leaders insisted the rally did not represent a parting of ways. "We had a strong mass base in Bihar. We did some introspection on why it had been eroded. Obviously because of the policies followed by the JD government," said CPM leader H.K.S. Surjeet.

Added state CPI leader Suraj Prasad: "The JD has reneged on its commitments to the people...there is rampant corruption, breakdown of law and order, a lack of development and mere lip service to land reforms". The recent Supreme Court ruling putting CBI director Joginder Singh back in charge of the fodder scam probe may have put joint director U.N. Biswas—whose report to the Patna High Court mentioned Laloo—in his place, but it was also a warning to Singh to conduct a fair probe. With a CBI chargesheet in the fodder scam being seen as merely a matter of time, the question is whether Laloo will go quietly. "It is better if he goes with his izzat intact," said a party member. Successors are already being discussed. Laloo is said to be keen on Abdul Bari Siddiqui, whose youth and inexperience are likely to weigh against him.

Whoever he chooses, said an MLA, will merely be keeping the chief ministerial chair warm for him. Laloo may lose the innings but, with skilful play, could well survive the Test.