What Happens To The JD(S) Next?

With the Congress crossing the half-way mark in Karnataka by noon, the hopes of the JD(S) of playing kingmaker in the state have been dashed. At the time the story was filed, the HD Deve Gowda family-led JD(S) was leading on 24 seats, a drop of 13 seats from 2018 when it had won in 37 constituencies.

The JD(S) vote share has also taken a hit. It hovered around 13.2 per cent at noon. In 2018, the party had a vote percentage of 18.3%. Does the result indicate a fading relevance of the JD(S) which has, in the past few elections, relied heavily on hung assembly results and secured power through tactical alliances with the bigger partner?

Given that it does not have state-wide support, the JDS had been hoping for either of the two national parties—the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)—to fall short of the majority so that it could bargain for more, even the chief minister’s post as it did in the last election.

While a detailed analysis would reveal the extent of damages suffered by the JD(S), the Election Commission of India (ECI) trends show that even the party's chief minister face, HD
Kumaraswamy, is himself facing a tough battle in Channapatna. His son Nikhil Kumaraswamy was staring at a defeat in Ramanagaram, the Gowda family’s bastion. At the time of filing the story, the senior Kumaraswamy had a thin lead over his nearest opponent. HD Deve Gowda, 89, had himself campaigned for Nikhil in a road show.

This would be a second consecutive defeat for Nikhil.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha election, Nikhil had contested from Mandya, the JD(S) stronghold in the Vokkaliga belt, but he was defeated by an independent candidate backed by the BJP, Sumalatha Ambareesh.

The JD(S) which relies heavily on the goodwill of the Deva Gowda family, especially in the Vokkaliga heartland in and around the Mysuru region of South Karnataka, also dealt with internal family issues this election.

The difference over the selection of a candidate for the Hassan seat became a big flashpoint over the potential nomination of Deve Gowda’s daughter-in-law Bhavani Revanna, which was opposed by HD Kumaraswamy. This was later resolved after a non-family candidate, HP Swaroop was nominated from the Hassan seat and Revanna was denied a ticket.
As per the latest trends, Swaroop is trailing.

In 2018, the JD(S) secured 37 seats across the state, ensuring that the BJP, the single largest party with 104 seats in the 224-member Assembly did not get a majority. Deve Gowda’s party won 23 out of 33 seats in the Vokkaliga heartland—Mysore, Hassan, Mandya, Ramanagara and Bengaluru Rural districts. In comparison, the Congress won only six seats in these districts, while the BJP managed only four.

A dominant rural community, traditionally associated with farming, the Vokkaligas are key to any party's electoral performance in southern Karnataka where they are not only concentrated in population but punch way above their weight in terms of setting the narrative and perhaps even influencing other communities in the villages they inhabit.

The slump of the JD(S) this election is bound to have long-term repercussions for the party with an ageing HD Deve Gowda at the helm and an aggressive BJP trying to breach the Vokkaliga heartland. The BJP's defeat would not deter the saffron party from continuing its overtures in the Vokkaliga belt as it heads to the 2024 Lok Sabha election.

On the eve of the Karnataka results, senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh predicted that the JDS would disintegrate after the final numbers are declared. It is a potent question as power exchanges hands in the state. Will HD Kumaraswamy be able to keep the part together?