NARASIMHA Rao has done it again. Using his discretion as party president, he called off the May 22 CWC meeting which was to consider whether he should step down in view of the party's electoral debacle. Rao, unanimously re-elected leader of the party's parliamentary wing with the rider that he would consider relinquishing the party chief's post just a few days back, bulldozed vociferous protests from rebels like K. Karunakaran, Rajesh Pilot and Ahmed Patel during an informal meeting packed with his "yesmen".
Nothing new here. In June 1991, after he became the prime minister, Rao had promised to quit as the party chief in a month's time upholding the one-man-one-post formula. But in the five years that followed, he showed the door to nearly half-a-dozen senior leaders who reminded him of his promise.
That he could do when his stars were in the ascendant. With him going under with his party, Rao has already lost much of his hold as most of the younger elements—in the under-50 age group—have adopted a rebellious posture.
Says a party MP: "If we aren't insisting on the CWC meeting and then an AICC session, it's only because first of all we want the BJP Government to go. After that, we'll support a Third Front government from outside. Only then will we settle scores with Rao.
Rao got a taste of the rebels' mood on May 17, when two of his former ministerial colleagues and loyalists—Santosh Mohan Deb and Mamata Banerjee—opposed his suggestion to field Shivraj Patil for a second term as Lok Sabha speaker on May 23. They, in turn, suggested that someone from the North-east or the minorities should be given the slot. As if that was not enough, four CWC members warned Rao against announcing a nominee unilaterally. Instead, they demanded that the National Front and Left Front constituents should be consulted "as we have promised to cooperate with them in government formation and House coordination". Their efforts, at the moment, seem oriented towards retrieving the Congress' left-of-centre, secular image that was lost under Rao.
In fact, an increasing number of party rebels do not believe Rao intended to stall the 'secular' forces from grabbing power by delaying the despatch of his letter of support to Deve Gowda. "But so low is his credibility that people believe it," says a PCC chief. And if the Speaker's choice is going to be the first setback for the BJP —it will be the first time that a ruling party does not have its own man at the helm of the House—it might be so for Rao too. For, this is precisely the front on which his hand may be forced by party rebels.
The post-poll rebellion in the Congress, however, has been a hesitant one. Sharad Pawar, who proposed Rao's name as CPP leader within hours of throwing his hat in the ring and backed the move to put off the CWC meet, has become persona non grata in the rebel ranks.
The rebel coordination group now comprises, besides K. Karunakaran, MPs like Ramesh Chennithala and P.C. Chacko (Kerala), Rajashekhar Reddy and Jana-rdhana Reddy (Andhra Pradesh), Oscar Fernandes (Karnataka), Ashok Gehlot and Pilot (Rajasthan), Tariq Anwar (Bihar) and Bhupinder Huda (Haryana). Dissidents from Haryana, Punjab and Orissa are also being wooed. Efforts to rope in Sonia Gandhi have so far borne no fruit. "She is definitely for unity and the return of Congressmen from the Tamil Maanila Congress and Congress(T). That in itself is an indication that she does not want Rao to continue," says a 10, Janpath source.
The anti-Rao chorus, again, is only wait-ing for the Vajpayee Government's vote of confidence late this month. Meanwhile, they are piling up ammunition. The rebels have solicited assurances from G.K. Moop-anar, P. Chidambaram, Madhavrao Scindia, N.D. Tiwari and others that they would not mind a homecoming if Rao is removed.
The loyalists—essentially party general secretaries like Devendra Dwivedi, B.P. Maurya and Janardhana Poojary—are opposed to any move that would "dilute the leader's authority at this stage". In fact, they see Rao's re-anointment as prime minister as inevitable—the argument being that, bereft of a majority, the BJP regime would fall and, bereft of harmony, Deve Gowda's rainbow coalition would crash.
What's haunting the dissidents is not the fear of Rao regaining control as much as the spectre of a near-total decimation of the party if fresh elections follow quickly. "We don't want to see the end of the Congress or our political careers. We have to see beyond Rao, and if he is a hurdle and incapable of being the leader, we will dump him," declares a CWC member. "But we won't allow him at any cost to go against the CWC decision to support a Deve Gowda government."
The hardening of such an attitude could lead up to a split in the Congress—in a few months, if not sooner. And given Rao's lack of organisational ability, this might also be the end of the road for him.
