BACK to square one. That is how the situation in Uttar Pradesh is being described in political circles. But the journey to get back to the beginning has wrought subtle changes in the attitude and game-plans of all the major players.
On December 19, the three-judge Allahabad bench of the Lucknow High Court quashed the proclamation of President's rule in Uttar Pradesh and held Governor Romesh Bhandari responsible for not trying hard enough to instal a popular government. For about 24 hours, the H.D. Deve Gowda-led United Front Government was in disarray. It alternately fumed over the "wrong and contradictory" judgement and worried about reports emanating from the various constituents of the United Front.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi exuberantly endorsed the court's decision as a victory for those in favour of greater autonomy for the states, at a time when relations between the DMK and the Centre are at a low ebb. Mulayam Singh Yadav's aides made it known that their leader would not give in to pressure to support a 'secular' BSP-Congress government led by Mayawati; and they hinted that otherwise they could join a Congress government at the Centre. For the Left parties, the judgement attracted criticism from within and outside for using Article 356 to fight the BJP politically. And the Telugu Desam Party and the Asom Gana Parishad, both constituents of the United Front, are not exactly displeased with the court order.
So when on December 20 the Supreme Court, admitting a special leave petition (SLP) moved by the Centre, granted a stay on the execution of the high court order till the "next hearing", the collective sigh of relief emitted by United Front managers was audible. The apex court, however, clarified that the stay should not hinder the governor's attempts to explore the possibility of government formation. And so, the court took on board Attorney General Ashok Desai's undertaking on behalf of the Centre that the Uttar Pradesh Assembly would not be dissolved in the meanwhile.
The United Front made every effort to dispel the notion that the court verdict amounted to a BJP victory. Said a senior party leader: "Even the high court judgement grants that the single largest party does not have to be invited to form the government." But sources pointed out that senior Front leaders, including Gowda, were agitated over the judgement—especially where it implied that Parliament had acted 'unconstitutionally' in ratifying President's rule. Sources say this is why Gowda, Union Home Minister Indrajit Gupta and Law Minister Ramakant Khalap decided to file the SLP on behalf of the Centre rather than the state government, as initially proposed.
But though the smirk is gone, the mood in the United Front camp turned upbeat after securing the stay from the apex court. In fact, it is the BJP which has the most at stake in Uttar Pradesh and is despondent after the stay. But even as Atal Behari Vajpayee declared on December 20 that the party was making efforts to form a government, differences within the party over extending support to Mayawati came to the fore.
The RSS took the "broader Hindu unity" line—the appropriation of Dalits within the ambit of Hindu-tva—and supported the idea of a BJP-supported BSP government. But BJP President L.K. Advani was not fully convinced. Neither was former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Kalyan Singh, who said: "The party leadership has decided that there is no question of extending support to anyone." Significantly, after the apex court stay, everyone seemed to retreat to their known positions.
United Front leaders claim it is the BJP which is in a bind. "What has changed for us?" they say. "The governor will naturally go on trying to swear in a stable government but unless there is a significant shiftin the stated position of the various political groupings, that looks unlikely. But we have to wait for the apex court to finally decide the issue. If it quashes the high court order, then the status quo remains in perpetuity; after all, a hung assembly was what the people of Uttar Pradesh voted for."
According to Front sources, if the opposite scenario holds true, then the governor has no option but to convene the House and let the legislators elect a leader like in the Japanese Diet. Which is certainly not in conformity with parliamentary conventions. What these justifications ignore, however, is the political price the United Front may have to pay for its volte-face on Article 356; Karunanidhi's reaction is only a pointer.
But the BJP tied itself up in knots even over the high court judgement. Kalyan Singh saw it as a vindication of his stand that as the leader of the largest single party, he should have been invited to form the government. Even though the court order had specifically clarified that point. "We do not agree with this part of the order," said Vajpayee, while welcoming the court decision.
With BSP supremo Kanshi Ram repeating his "Maywati for chief minister" refrain as his reaction to the court judgements, party insiders say that the BJP has no option but to support Mayawati. And the governor maintains there is no change in the Uttar Pradesh political scenario even after the courts have had their say. He just may be right.
