IT is a curious mixture of expectation and resignation in the Deve Gowda-led United Front (UF); poised for power, but with the knowledge that it is not on its own terms. And so, while senior Janata Dal leader Sharad Yadav is confident of the Front being invited to form the next government, he turns irritable when asked about contentious policy issues. "We, the broad non-Congress, non-BJP opposition, have been advocating our policies for over 40 years now but the people just don't give us the mandate for the kind of radical change we want to bring about," he admits. "The mandate has been to run a 'welfare state' and that is what we will do—concentrate on education, electricity and water."
In fact, concede UF sources, for such a heterogeneous political grouping, problems are only likely to increase once they are in power. One of Gowda's first hurdles, if he becomes prime minister, is likely to be the selection of a Cabinet that pleases everyone. A senior UF leader insists: "For reasons of strategy there has not even been an informal exchange of notes on the issue of Cabinet formation or the constituents of a future government." This is regarded as an attempt to avoid any dispute before a UF government becomes a reality and also to keep the contentious issue of the participation of the leaders chargesheeted in the hawala scandal in the government on the backburner. UF sources do, however, indicate that Gowda will have to expand his council of ministers in phases to accommodate the various constituents.
The UF also seems set to err on the side of caution with regard to sending the individual letters of support for itself to the President, though a spokesperson claimed that 190 MPs had already signed them. "The thinking at the moment is that we should send the letters only after the BJP Government has fallen and there are definite indications that we are going to be called next," according to a UF leader. And it is learnt that Gowda, who was crestfallen when the President invited A.B. Vajpayee instead of him to form the Government, has agreed to the move as he does not want to come across as over-eager again.
Then, there is the divergence of views within the UF on issues like economic reforms. But these are only the shallow waters, and the UF has set up a steering committee to arrive at a common programme. The deep end is going to be interaction with the Congress, on which any UF government will have to depend for its survival. Janata Dal leader Jaipal Reddy is only willing to say that "at the moment, there is no plan to set up any formal body on the lines of the steering committee for interaction with the Congress." This is where Gowda will have to use his new-found friendship with Congress President P.V. Narasimha Rao and senior leaders like Sharad Pawar.
In fact, Gowda and other senior UF leaders emphasise the need for effective floor coordination with the Congress in Parliament to prevent an embarrassing situation from developing for the UF once it is in power and to make sure that the BJP doesn't take advantage of such a situation. "I think consultations with the Congress at crucial times, such as before the introduction of a bill, will be essential," says a Left leader.
Gowda will also have to walk the tightrope in terms of compromises he will have to make, especially with regard to economic reforms, in return for Congress support. Sources point out that a three-member committee comprising P. Chidambaram, Reddy and Sitaram Yechuri of the CPI(M) has been set up to examine the manifestos of the various UF constituents in order to come up with a common minimum programme. But they emphasise that there will be no rolling back of the reforms by a UF government and no decision taken by the Rao government will be rescinded, though it will be ensured that any future inflow of foreign capital is not in the consumer goods sector but in infrastructural and hi-tech areas.
As UF sources told Outlook: "There will be no restrictions on expansion within India for the transnationals already in the country, including those in the consumer sector." And a senior Dal leader also ruled out the possibility of any grand gesture, a la George Fernandes and Coke. But Gowda has to deal with his Left allies and elements within the Dal, who will not be inclined to too many compromises on economic policy. -
But apart from the prognosis, ever since the BJP Government was sworn in on May 16 and the UF realised that it would have to wait its turn, its leaders have been in a state of suspended animation. From an initial mood of belligerence when the President invited the BJP to take the first crack at forming a government—which UF leaders readily concede was an 'over-reaction'—to the present confidence tinged by a hint of nervousness, the trek has proved arduous.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the march of the UF towards power at the Centre has been the frantic pace at which friends have been made or, at the very least, channels of communication established between the various constituents of the newly-christened Front and between it and the Congress. Apart from Gowda's contacts with the Congress leadership, Laloo Prasad Yadav, V.P. Singh, Mufti Sayeed and Chan-drababu Naidu all did their bit. Adds a Front Leader: "Everybody is in touch with everyone else. But the surprise of the past two weeks has been the role played by CPI(M)General Secretary H.K.S. Surjeet despite the uncompromising stand of his party."
For all this, however, the inner contradiction of such an unwieldy political grouping is more than evident and the abiding impression remains that the UF has stumbled upon, rather than ridden to, power.
