OUTLOOK had commissioned DB MRAS, one of Indias most reputed market research organisations, to conduct a preelection opinion poll in Uttar Pradesh, the results of which were published in our October 2 issue. But since then certain political developments at the national levelP.V. Narasimha Rao resigned as Congress president and the hawala case against BJP president L.K. Advani was deferredhave had considerable influence on voting patterns. The BJP is likely to be the biggest beneficiary and thus may fare better than predicted. To validate the findings of the first poll, an exit poll was carried out in 10 assembly constituencies where elections were held in the first two phases on September 30 and October 3.
Voters, approached after they had cast their vote, were given a ballot paper to mark the party they had opted for. In order to ensure confidentiality, the papers were even put into a dummy ballot box. The poll was conducted at randomly selected booths spread across four polling stations in urban UP and six polling stations in rural areas of each constituency.
The exit poll shows a 1 per cent swing in favour of the BJP compared to the pre-election polls. The increase in BJP votes has primarily been at the cost of the Congress-Bahujan Samaj Party combine, and particularly in those areas where a Congress candidate is contesting. The exit poll shows that in the run-up to the elections, support for Congress had dwindled considerably.
The exit poll indicates that the BJP may just about manage a majority or be left with a couple of seats shortan outcome which can be tilted in its favour by roping in Independents. Post exit polls, it seems likely that the BJP will form the next government in UP.
But one point has to be notedas the exit poll covered a much smaller sample of voters compared to the opinion poll, the margin of error can be that much higher.
