Will India matter to Obama as much as it did to Bush?
India’s one of the few areas where George W. Bush managed to successfully see through a broadly supported initiative and there’s no doubt that Obama too sees India as an important rising power, a liberal democracy, and a partner in the world.
Will the Democrats’ traditional concern over non-proliferation cast its shadow over Indo-US relations?
They’ll put more emphasis on a new or renewed non-proliferation architecture. While there has been concern about "non-proliferation fundamentalists", I believe the pragmatists will prevail. They want to include India in a positive way in a new regime among existing nuclear powers.
There’s much talk of India and the US coming closer to counter China. How do you see this play out under Obama?
The Bush administration did see things this way, but of course India has cleverly pursued an autonomous line and deepened relations with both the US and China. Washington-New Delhi-Beijing is a complex triangle in which there is hedging on all sides. The US may certainly try to broaden the agenda with China, and also with India, and this should be viewed as trying to transcend the notion of an iron triangle or an Indo-US alliance against China rather than reinforcing that notion.
Will Obama’s policies impact adversely on outsourcing—and, therefore, India?
It remains to be seen whether protectionism will take hold, and how that would impact India. It’s widely recognised that worker dislocation has more to do with technological advances than with outsourcing, and this data will come into play in determining which trade policies will be pursued towards which markets. The focus, though, should be on maintaining open markets while retooling and improving the competitiveness of the US workforce.
Do you see India coming under pressure on Kashmir?
Kashmir has appeared higher on the agenda when it’s seen as diverting Pakistan’s focus from its border region with Afghanistan and the US priority of capturing senior Al Qaeda leaders and fighting the Taliban.
