WMO sees 80% chance of El Niño developing by August 2026
El Niño could trigger droughts, heatwaves and extreme rainfall globally
South Asia faces higher risk of weaker monsoon rainfall and droughts
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that there is an 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events across several parts of the world.
In its latest update, the United Nations (UN) weather agency said unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are driving the emergence of El Niño conditions, which are expected to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns over the coming months. The probability of El Niño persisting through November is estimated at 90% or higher, with most forecast models suggesting the event could be moderate to strong.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It typically occurs every two to seven years and can alter weather patterns worldwide.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon could intensify droughts, heavy rainfall events and heatwaves on land and in the oceans. The agency noted that even moderate El Niño episodes can increase the frequency and severity of weather extremes.
Impact on Weather Patterns
The WMO forecasts above-normal temperatures across most parts of the world during the June-August period. It also expects below-average rainfall in several regions, including parts of South Asia, Central America and the Horn of Africa.
In South Asia, El Niño has historically been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall, although the extent of its impact varies from year to year. The agency said reduced rainfall could heighten drought risks in some regions while increasing pressure on agriculture, water resources and energy systems.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the approaching El Niño as an "urgent climate warning", saying it could amplify the effects of global warming and increase the risk of weather-related disasters.
The WMO said advance warnings should help governments and businesses prepare, particularly in climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water management, energy and public health.
