Northeast Election Results: Counting Begins In Tripura, Nagaland, Meghalaya Amid Tight Security

The counting of votes begins in three Northeast Indian states of Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland that went to polls last month. 

While Nagaland and Meghalaya went to polls on February 27, Tripura went to polls on February 16. 

Counting of votes polled in the 60 assembly seats in Tripura began at 8 am on Thursday amid tight security arrangements, a senior election official said.

A total of 25,000 security personnel have been deployed in Tripura to maintain law and order.

"Prohibitory orders under Section 144 of CrPC have been clamped across the state from 6 pm on March 1 to 6 am on March 3 to prevent any untoward incident, but essential services and examinees have been kept out of its purview," Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) Gitte Kirankumar Dinakarrao said.

In Meghalaya also counting of votes began at 8 am on Thursday amid tight security, a senior election official said.

Votes polled in 59 of the 60 assembly constituencies of the state on February 27 are being counted at 13 centres across the state. Polling in Sohiong seat was adjourned due to the death of a candidate.

Twenty-two companies of central paramilitary forces have been deployed to guard the counting centres, Chief Electoral Officer F R Kharkongor told PTI.

The stakes are high for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the three assembly elections with 60 seats each. The BJP fights to expand its footprint in Northeast India after an intense political campaign that saw bigwigs, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, hit the ground. 

The three Northeast Indian states' election results will show if the BJP has managed to deepen its roots in Tripura and made further inroads in Meghalaya and Nagaland or if the ambitious Opposition has managed to dent its influence.

Politics of Tripura, Nagaland, Meghalaya

The three states of Northeast India delivering their electoral verdicts today have a mix of common and unique features. Here we explain how things stand in the three states.

Tripura

The state of Tripura was a Left bastion until 2018 when the BJP sounded its death knell and changed the decades-old norm with a single major promise of development. This time, the BJP is fighting to retain this influence in the hilly state. 

However, the Pradyot Debbarma-led TIPRA Motha has emerged as an X-factor among the national parties as the sway of its founder Debbarma —scion of erstwhile royalty— among a big section of the tribal population has disturbed conventional calculations, more so as the BJP and its ally Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) had done well in the tribal region in 2018. The BJP had won 36 seats and the IPFT eight last time. 

The TIPRA Motha carries the potential to reshape the tribal politics of Tripura, noted Dr Biswaranjan Tripura of Tata School of Social Sciences, Mumbai.

He noted, "The TIPRA Motha does have the potential to shape the current indigenous politics in Tripura, provided it remains fully-committed to its core ideology, continue to struggle politically for the rights of the indigenous people of Tripura, and honestly pursue a permanent constitutional solution for its constituents. In case they are given a political opportunity by the larger indigenous tribes, they are bound to shape the future of Tripura politics. But if they show inability to remain and hold steadfast to their core commitment, then like a repeat of the past, they will also become like the present IPFT. In such a case, unfortunate as it may sound for the indigenous tribes of Tripura, I foresee the common people rejecting them in due course."

Nagaland

Nagaland went into the assembly election with the unique distinction of having no Opposition as all parties with a presence in the 60-member assembly backed the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party-led government. 

The BJP is again fighting the polls in alliance with the NDPP. In 2018, the alliance won 30 seats — 18 by NDPP and 12 by BJP. It managed to defeat the 15 years reign of the Naga People’s Front with the support of two MLAs of the National People's Party of Meghalaya Chief Minister Conrad Sangma, one of JD(U), and an Independent.

Nagaland also carries the unique distinction of having no woman MLA in its history. This year, the trend might finally end as four women are in the fray, noted Outlook's issue on the Northeast polls.

A report noted, "This ostensible equality has nevertheless failed to translate into political representation for women in Nagaland, who remain overwhelmingly absent from the political sphere. Since its creation as a separate state in 1963, Nagaland has never elected a woman as an MLA. That might change this year with four women contesting the upcoming legislative elections in the state with tickets from the ruling NDPP and BJP as well as from Congress." 

The shadow of the 'Naga issue' also looms large over Nagaland assembly elections. In 2018, the BJP and its ally NDPP fought the assembly elections on the slogan “Election for Solution” and made it to power. However, despite several talks with the main rebel group NSCN-IM and seven other armed outfits under the banner of Naga National Political Groups (NNPGs), the negotiations have remained stagnant since 2019 over the demand of NSCN (IM) for a separate Naga flag and a constitution.

In the run-up to assembly elections, the NNPGs have accused Nagaland BJP’s leadership of failing the people of the state by not finding a solution to the issue.

"If the election is enforced in Nagaland against the people's demand for honorable and acceptable negotiated political settlement, men like Temjen Imna Along as per their trivial activities will most certainly ensure a wipe out of BJP from Nagaland," said NNPGs in a statement.

Meghalaya

Meghalaya has changed 25 chief ministers in a span of 45 years with an average span of two years for each government. 

While the BJP –which has fought on all 60 seats for the first time– attempts to change this trend, it has a new challenger as the Trinamool Congress (TMC) has entered the fray to get a foothold in the state, presenting itself as a stronger opponent than the Congress. 

Moreover, with four national and four regional parties at the fray, Meghalaya might be again looking at a fractured mandate and thus impending instability in its coalitions since its statehood.

What do exit polls predict?

In Tripura, most exit polls predict that the BJP and the IPFT will retain power. However, the Times Now-ETG Research and Zee News-Matrize polls showed that the BJP would just fall short of the majority.

In Nagaland, the exit polls by different agencies gave a comfortable lead to the NDPP-BJP alliance to retain power and form the government for the second consecutive term. 

The NDPP is slated to get 28-34 seats with a vote share of 33 per cent and the BJP is expected to get 10-14 seats with 16 per cent vote share, according to India Today-My Axis poll. Times Now predicted that the NDPP-BJP alliance would win 39-49 seats. 

In Meghalaya, exit polls predict that the state may witness a hung assembly with no party close to the majority mark, even though Meghalaya’s Chief Minister Conrad Sangma remained confident of victory.