THIS certainly is a scenario Bal Thackeray made no allowance for when he scripted the Sena-BJP's march to power in Maharashtra—the tough-talking Tiger and his legislators being virtual puppets in the hands of arch-rivals Congress. With the Sena-led alliance on the war path with independent legislators supporting it, Sharad Pawar as puppeteer is fast turning a previous handicap into a current advantage.
At stake for the Sena-led alliance is their very government in Maharashtra currently being propped up by these independent MLAs. The Congress, having fired its guns across the Sena's bows and doubly using the independents as its Trojan horse, has now decided that should Speaker Datta Nalawade disqualify the first batch of seven independents for seeking Congress membership, the party's legislators would resign en masse. This could precipitate an unprecedented constitutional crisis leading to early polls in Maharashtra—something the Congress in Maharashtra has always wanted.
The political equation in the state assembly is such that if the Congress which has 81 MLAs in a house of 288 and the 45 independents and a dozen Sena rebels, many of whom are sidling up to the Congress, quit then close to half the assembly would have resigned, paving the way for elections. The Congress, which has a majority in the legislative council, also plans to ask its MLCs to quit to ensure the dissolution of the house. Confirms Chhagan Bhujbal, leader of the opposition in the state legislative council: "All Congress MLAs and MLCs will quit, no sooner than these seven independents are disqualified."
The Speaker has already threatened to add 15 more legislators to the first list of seven erring independents. But both Nala-wade and the Sena leadership are slowly realising they might've bitten off more than they can reasonably chew. The party has precipitated a situation whereby heads, the Congress could win and tails, the Congress could win too.
Pawar-watchers are naturally curious as to why he's biding time in toppling the government when most independent MLAs, plus a dozen Shiv Sena rebels, have offered the Congress their support in doing so. "The problem," by Pawar's own admission to Outlook, "is that with all of them on our side we still do not get enough numbers to form a (stable) government." Like at the Centre, even in Maharashtra, the Congress, if it indulges in the toppling game, will be able to cobble together only a coalition as unsteady as the existing one.
The Congress, on its part, rubbishes the documents that were purportedly leaked from the state party headquarters to the top Sena leadership and which were submitted to the Speaker as proof of the "admission" of these Independents into the Congress fold. The buzz is that the Sena is sitting on some forged documents that 'prove' these seven independents were admitted into the Congress. However, the receipts at the end of the admission forms are neither signed nor returned to the new members, as is the normal procedure within the Congress. But the documents might not be entirely fake—some are certainly only "incomplete". According to Congress whip Rohidas Patil, these "admission forms" might have been filled out by independents more than a year ago. But more reliable sources say the documents were actually generated in June this year when reluctant independents were asked to sign them as a show of good faith when they offered to support Congress candidates at the biennial elections to the Rajya Sabha.
Though the Congress has lodged an internal probe to discover where the leak sprung from, the fact remains that whatever Nalawade might decide, the party is still sitting pretty. By coming down on the erring independents the Sena seems to have also alienated those independents still in its camp. Besides, at least three high-profile ex-Congress ministers in the Joshi government have approached a pradesh Congress executive, bypassing both Pawar and Bhosale, with feelers to AICC general secretary Madhavrao Scindia who has charge of Maharashtra.
Responding to these overtures, Scindia made it clear they're welcome to return to the party. "But tickets are non-negotiable," he said. The Congress is finally in a position to call all the shots. The Sena might end up loser on all counts. Should the independents be disqualified, it might precipitate early polls. If not, it would be a climbdown for the Sena which has been promising action against those flirting with the Congress.
