- Turmoil in Pakistan could spill over into India
- Jehadis will be emboldened
- But India will deal with whoever rules Pakistan
- Democracy or dictatorship-it doesn't matter, who controls the guns does
- Benazir or Sharif-both have heavy baggage despite their airbrushed TV appearances
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Parthasarathy recounts that Sharif personally approved the 1993 Bombay blasts, which were executed by his fundamentalist isi chief Gen Javed Nasir who also had a long hand in Punjab's separatist violence. As a result, India came close to getting Pakistan on the US list of state sponsors of terrorism. Lashkar-e-Toiba was also Sharif's pet project just as Harkat-ul-Mujahideen grew under Benazir. She raised decibel levels on Kashmir to sharp shrieks in the early '90s. That leaves the Pakistani army whose training manual, it must be remembered, identifies only one enemy.
Given the grim and grimmer possibilities, the most important task for India is to continue the peace process and keep it insulated from the turmoil inside Pakistan. Officials say efforts to open up travel and trade will inevitably slow down because decisions will not be taken in time. "Ultimately we need a stable neighbour. Any fragmentation of authority creates instability," notes a senior official. The recent events involving the chief justice, the subsequent protests by lawyers, the attack on the militants inside the Lal Masjid, the high drama of Nawaz's arrival and his swift deportation to Saudi Arabia and talks of a deal with Benazir are a clear signal that Musharraf is floundering.
Some believe that the growing US and Saudi role in Pakistan's internal affairs too is noteworthy. Subhash Chakravarti, a veteran journalist and foreign policy analyst, considers it "a disturbing portent". "The Pakistani establishment doesn't seem to be the master of its own decision-making. The deportation of Sharif to Jeddah was clearly orchestrated from outside," he says.
India is closely watching the situation while resisting the temptation to take advantage of Musharraf's mess. He is able to keep 1,00,000 troops on the Pak-Afghan border, leaving the Indo-Pak border less guarded—a luxury Islamabad could never have chosen a few years ago. "Relations are better than before but they haven't gone to the extent we would have liked. There has been progress at every level but not enough," says a former ambassador to Pakistan. But analysts praise the broad political consensus inside Pakistan for better relations with India as a major plus. "The peace process hasn't derailed despite the problems and that in itself is a tribute to its steadfastness," the ex-envoy adds. But relative calm doesn't mean complacency. After the deception of Kargil, the guard is always up and nothing is taken for granted.
