US-Iran conflict entered a broader phase with regional strikes and renewed naval blockade.
Seven nights of US strikes left at least 50 dead and 500 injured.
Escalating regional tensions fuel fears of a prolonged US-Iran forever war.
The United States and Iran signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on 17 June in Islamabad, brokered with Pakistan's help, and it was meant to set the stage for talks on a permanent end to the fighting, Iran's nuclear programme and long-term administration of the Strait of Hormuz.
The US has now completed seven consecutive nights of strikes on Iran, Tehran has launched missiles and drones at six Gulf states, a US naval blockade of Iranian ports is back in force, and an IRGC official has warned of a full-scale offensive if American strikes do not stop. At least 50 people have been killed in Iran since this latest phase of the war began, according to the Iranian Health Ministry, with at least 500 injured since 27 June when the fragile ceasefire first began to fray.
Is Second Phase Different
The first phase was primarily an air war between the US, Israel and Iran. This phase has rapidly widened into a multi-front conflict involving US military bases across the Gulf. Iran launched strikes against Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Jordan and Syria, with the IRGC claiming responsibility for attacks on US military assets across the region. The targets included a Patriot air defence system and an ammunition depot in Kuwait, a US communications system and radar site in Bahrain, and US facilities at Prince Hassan airbase in Jordan.
The US military has reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports and said it has redirected two compliant commercial vessels and disabled one non-compliant vessel in the first 24 hours of the renewed blockade. The first blockade between April and June intercepted 142 ships and disabled nine. Strikes are now targeting infrastructure inside Iran. Trump warned publicly that bridges and power plants would be next unless Tehran returned to talks, and US strikes have already hit a mineral water production facility in Dehloran and a maritime traffic control centre in Chabahar, which Iran has described as war crimes.
Countries/groups in frame
This is no longer a bilateral conflict. Belligerents on the US-Israel side include Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait. On Iran's side, the Axis of Resistance includes Hezbollah, the Houthis, the Amal Movement, Popular Mobilization Forces and the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. A new pro-Iranian Shia militant group in Iraq called Jaysh al-Ghadab, meaning Army of Wrath, formed in February 2026 and has been active in the current phase. The Houthis in Yemen have also continued attacking shipping, adding a southern front to the maritime pressure on the Gulf.
Gulf states that are formally non-belligerent are getting hit anyway. Iran launched missile and drone attacks against Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan and the UAE on 12 July, just hours after the US carried out a third round of airstrikes against Iranian targets. Qatar, which has a relatively warmer relationship with Tehran and has served as a key intermediary throughout the conflict, condemned the attacks. Kuwait said it was responding to missile and drone threats. Jordan's foreign minister denounced what he called brutal Iranian attacks as a blatant breach of international law.
"Forever War"
Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group told CNN that if such a minimal understanding cannot hold between the two sides, there is no way to put a floor under these tensions, which means the conflict will go from one cycle of violence to the next, exactly the concept of a forever war. Defence analysts told CNBC they see no clear path to a settlement of the renewed hostilities. Iran has publicly maintained its combat-ready posture even as Trump said Tehran wants to meet and make a deal. The IRGC's Mohsen Rezaei has warned that if US attacks continue for another two or three days, Iran will enter a phase of full-scale offensive operations, adding that no political border will be secure against Iran's offensive forces.
The structural problem is that neither side has a workable endgame. The US wants Iran to cede control of Hormuz and abandon its nuclear ambitions. Iran wants sanctions relief, a halt to Israeli operations in Lebanon and formal recognition of its regional role. Those positions have not moved since February. The strikes keep happening because neither side has found a way to stop them.
