The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is likely to face the twin risks of droughts and flash floods during the 2026 monsoon season despite forecasts of below-normal rainfall in several countries, according to a new report released on Thursday.
The HKH region, often referred to as Asia's water tower, stretches across eight countries -- Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India, Myanmar, Nepal and Pakistan -- and provides freshwater resources to nearly two billion people.
The Hindu Kush Himalaya Monsoon Outlook 2026, published by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), projects below-normal monsoon rainfall across parts of Bhutan, India, Nepal and Pakistan, while above-normal temperatures are expected across much of the region.
Scientists, however, warned that a weaker monsoon does not necessarily translate into lower disaster risks.
Experts caution that the risk of flash floods, landslides and other hazards remains high.
"Even in a weaker monsoon, short periods of intense rainfall remain a major concern,” said Manish Shrestha, Hydrologist at ICIMOD, stressing the need for communities and authorities to closely monitor short-term forecasts and advisories.
The warning comes amid growing concerns over the impact of climate change on the HKH region, which has been warming faster than the global average and has witnessed an increase in extreme weather events, including devastating floods, landslides, glacial lake outburst floods and prolonged droughts in recent years.
According to the regional climate body report, prolonged dry spells interspersed with intense downpours could increase the likelihood of both droughts and floods within the same season. Such rainfall patterns could trigger flash floods and landslides, particularly in fragile mountain ecosystems.
“The outlook points to a drier monsoon overall, but that does not mean lower risk. Short, intense rainfall events can still trigger serious hazards,” Shrestha said.
The report noted that rising temperatures are "likely to intensify heat stress and reduce water availability".
The warming of the HKH region has significant implications for the global climate. Acting as a heat source in summer and a heat sink in winter, the region, along with the Tibetan Plateau, helps shape the Indian summer monsoon.
Experts warn that climatic changes in the HKH could further affect the monsoon, which is already exhibiting changes in its spread and rainfall distribution patterns.
Lower snow persistence at the start of the monsoon season has also weakened the region's natural water-storage capacity, making river flows and groundwater recharge more vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall, the ICIMOD report said.
"Lower snow persistence means the region is entering the monsoon with a reduced seasonal water buffer,” said Sarthak Shrestha, co-author of the outlook.
Experts said the growing unpredictability of the monsoon is complicating disaster preparedness and response efforts across South Asia.
"The growing unpredictability of the monsoon is already creating coordination challenges. Preparedness now requires stronger coordination between government, technical agencies, and local authorities,” according to Neera Shrestha Pradhan, Water and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Lead at ICIMOD.
The outlook warned that erratic weather patterns could put additional pressure on food production, water resources, and energy systems while increasing vulnerability in both rural and urban areas.
“Erratic rainfall following long dry spells increases the risk of landslides. This can worsen socio-economic pressures, including migration, rising food prices, energy stress, and disruptions to tourism,” said Ranit Chatterjee, CEO of social entrepreneurial start-up Rika India.
Scientists also called for stronger early warning systems and impact-based forecasting.
"Drought and flood risks can no longer be managed separately. Early warning systems, short-term forecasts, and locally driven preparedness need to work together to address increasingly complex hazards," said Arun Bhakta Shrestha, Senior Adviser at ICIMOD.
Experts said that with climate variability increasing, governments and communities must prepare simultaneously for multiple hazards rather than planning for a single type of disaster.
