The Houthis have declared a blockade against Saudi Arabia, but the Red Sea remains open to commercial shipping.
Ships continue to transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait despite heightened security risks and reduced traffic.
The latest attacks have disrupted shipping and raised concerns over global trade and energy supplies without completely closing the route.
The Houthis have declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and claimed attacks on oil tankers in the Red Sea, raising fears that one of the world's busiest shipping routes could be shut. Yet commercial vessels continue to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, leaving a key question: have the Houthis actually blocked the Red Sea?
The answer is no. The Red Sea has not been blocked to marine traffic. According to Reuters, commercial vessels continue to transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the narrow gateway connecting the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, even as traffic has fallen to its lowest level in months. The Houthis have demonstrated an ability to disrupt shipping and influence commercial decisions, but they have not established effective control over the waterway. That distinction is central to understanding what is unfolding.
The latest tensions began after the Iran-aligned Houthis announced what they described as a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. The group said the move was in response to what it called Saudi actions against Yemen and was aimed at blocking Saudi exports. Soon afterwards, the Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and said they had struck facilities belonging to Saudi state oil company Aramco in Jizan and Yanbu.
Reuters reported that a maritime security source confirmed one tanker, Encelia, sent a distress call after reporting it had been hit by a missile near Jizan, while the second claimed attack has not been independently confirmed.
Whether the Houthis have actually blocked the Red Sea depends on what "blockade" means in practice.
Declaring a blockade is one thing; enforcing it is another. While the Houthis have shown they can strike individual vessels, Reuters reports there is no evidence they can prevent commercial shipping from using the Bab el-Mandeb over a sustained period.
Shipping data illustrates the point. Reuters reported that 11 commodity vessels passed through the Bab el-Mandeb on Sunday, the lowest daily figure in several months. Seven of those were oil tankers, with some entering the Red Sea to load Saudi crude at Yanbu and others leaving with cargoes destined for China and Pakistan. The reduced traffic reflects heightened caution rather than an inability to navigate the waterway.
The key to understanding why ships are still moving is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The Red Sea itself is a vast body of water stretching between north-east Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. What makes shipping vulnerable is the Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow southern entrance through which vessels must pass to enter or leave the Red Sea from the Indian Ocean. Any group seeking to disrupt maritime traffic is therefore trying to threaten movement through this chokepoint rather than "block" the entire sea.
The Houthis have also not declared that every ship using the Red Sea is a target. Their announcement was directed at Saudi Arabia and its exports. Yet commercial shipping rarely operates in such clear-cut terms. Once attacks occur in a major sea lane, operators often respond by treating the entire route as higher risk. Ships that are not directly linked to the intended target may still avoid the area because insurers, security advisers and shipowners judge the threat to be too great.
That is already happening. Reuters reported that five tankers changed course after the Houthis announced the blockade, while three tankers carrying Saudi crude to China and India made U-turns before entering the most exposed stretch of the route. For shipping companies, the impact extends beyond the immediate threat of attack. Higher insurance premiums, increased freight costs, concerns over crew safety and the prospect of longer voyages all influence whether it remains commercially viable to use the Red Sea.
This helps explain why markets have reacted even though ships continue to sail through the Bab el-Mandeb. The latest disruption comes as Gulf exporters have increasingly relied on the Red Sea because shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has also faced disruption during the wider regional conflict.
According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia has redirected much of its crude exports to its Red Sea port of Yanbu, allowing cargoes to reach Europe through the Suez Canal or Asia through the Bab el-Mandeb. Petroleum volumes passing through the Bab el-Mandeb reached about 7.4 million barrels per day in June, equivalent to roughly seven per cent of global oil production, Reuters reported. That has made the route even more significant for global energy markets than it was before the latest crisis.
The Houthis have demonstrated their ability to disrupt Red Sea shipping before. Following the outbreak of the Gaza war in late 2023, the group launched attacks on vessels it said were linked to Israel. Those attacks prompted major shipping companies, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, to divert ships around the Cape of Good Hope instead of using the Suez Canal, adding time and cost to journeys between Europe and Asia.
According to Reuters, traffic through the Suez Canal has still not recovered to pre-2023 levels. A US-led naval mission intercepted Houthi drones and missiles and carried out strikes on Houthi positions, while attacks eased following a Gaza ceasefire. Some shipping companies had only recently begun restoring limited Red Sea services before the latest Houthi announcement created fresh uncertainty.
Whether the Houthis can sustain their latest campaign remains unclear. Reuters reports it is uncertain how the group would enforce a prolonged maritime blockade or whether it intends to resume the broader pattern of attacks seen during its earlier Red Sea campaign. Unlike a conventional navy, the Houthis rely on missiles, drones and attacks on individual vessels rather than permanent control of the sea. Those capabilities can raise the risks of navigation and influence commercial behaviour, but they do not necessarily enable the group to stop every ship using an international waterway.
For now, the evidence suggests the Houthis have not blocked the Red Sea to marine traffic. Ships continue to pass through the Bab el-Mandeb, even as some operators choose to reroute or delay voyages. The group's latest campaign has shown that it does not need to close the waterway completely to have an economic impact. By making one of the world's busiest shipping corridors riskier to use, it has already influenced commercial decisions, disrupted trade flows and added fresh uncertainty to global energy markets.
