G20 Summit: Why Russian President Vladimir Putin Will Be The Elephant In The Room

Vladimir Putin is not expected to attend the upcoming G20 leaders’ summit in Bali, Indonesian President and host of the summit, Joko Widodo has told the media. But even if he is not physically present, the Russian President will continue to be the elephant in the room and dominate the discussions because of his actions in Ukraine.

The summit to be held between November 15 and 16 is likely to be dominated by the ongoing war and the role Russia has played in beginning the nine-month-old conflict by invading its neighbour.

There are clear indications that the division among the leaders on the Ukraine issue could end up making the Indonesian summit the most divisive meeting of the G20.

In the run-up to the summit there was a raging debate among the members whether Putin should be invited or boycotted by the G20. But Widodo prevailed over the Russian President’s detractors and managed to remain neutral by inviting Russia to the summit.

As a compromise and to get the support of the western countries, he had to invite the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Bali, even though his country is not part of the G20.

Significance of the G20

The group comprises Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Italy, Indonesia, India, Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, United Kingdom, and the United States along with the European Union.

It accounts for 80 percent of the world’s GDP, 75 percent of global trade and 60 percent of the world’s population.

The aim of the G20 is to achieve global economic stability and sustainable growth, reduction of risks and future financial crises and modernize the international financial structure.

But now the Ukraine war is looming large and threatening to tear apart the G20, raising serious questions about its survival and ability to stabilize the global economy from future crises.

'G20 not meant to be a political forum': Widodo

Widodo told the Financial Times in an interview that he was concerned that the G20 gathering could be overshadowed by a “very worrying” rise in international tensions.

“The G20 is not meant to be a political forum. It’s meant to be about economics and development,” the Indonesian President said.

Many fear that the division within, may not even allow the G20 to come out with its customary joint statement issued at the end of each summit.

The recommendations are not binding on the 20 countries but they indicate an effort on their part to deal with the emerging challenges together. This seems highly unlikely in the next week’s summit.

When Indonesia took over the Chair of the G20 from Italy at the end of 2021, there was hope that collective efforts would be made to revive the global economy and put it back on track. The expectations were obvious since all countries had suffered because of the global disruption in supply chains and from the effects of the two-year lockdown of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Few had anticipated the Ukraine war to begin almost seamlessly in end February and derail all efforts to revive the global economy.

Shadow of Russia's tensions with G7

Significantly, relations between Russia and rest of the western economies that are in the core grouping known as the Group of Seven or G7, has often been problematic.

The G7 was formed in 1975 in the wake of the global oil crises and when countries of West Asia and North Africa started to use oil as a weapon against the developed economies of the west, to discuss security, financial and other important economic developments.

Subsequently, in the post-Cold War period an effort to integrate the Russian economy with the rest of the developed western economies had led to the creation of the Group of eight or G8. But it was disbanded after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and the core again became G7.

But now the longer war in Ukraine and Russia’s invasion has created a much bigger opposition led by the western group in the G20.

The G20 had started in the wake of the economic crisis in Asia in 1997-98 as a meeting of economic ministers and governors of the central banks to discuss checks and balances to meet future economic challenges.

But it had to be upgraded to the head of government level after the global economic crisis of 2008 that began in the US, soon spread to the rest of the world.

However, the efficacy of the group to deal with challenges to the global economy is now being frequently doubted.

US-China rivalry and other bilateral tensions

But beyond Russia, there are other strains too in the G20, like the current tension in America and China relations that are affecting the group from coming out with effective policies that can be implemented.

The Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the forthcoming summit as a confident leader after getting an unprecedented approval from the Chinese Communist Party as its general secretary for the third term.

In contrast, US President Joe Biden will be there after losing the House of Representatives to the Republicans in the American midterm election, a development which is likely to hamstring the rest of his presidency.

The two leaders are scheduled to hold their first in-person meeting before the summit in Bali. This in turn can help in easing the tension between the two countries.

But there are strains and tensions in relations between the members—like the two-year old military standoff between India and China at the Line of Actual Control and in Saudi Arabia’s relations with the US. All these divisions are likely to add the G20 members putting up a united face to deal with the emerging challenges to the global economy.

Among the initiatives, the G20 leaders agreed to set up a fund to deal with future pandemics and disruption in supply chains to safeguard the global economy. But Ukraine could derail all such efforts.

India's Presidency of G20

For India, which takes over the chair from Indonesia to host the 2023 G20 summit, this provides an extremely important opportunity. More than 200 meetings are scheduled to be held next year in the run-up to the Delhi summit. This certainly poses a huge logistical challenge. But it is also an opportunity for India to host these meetings in different parts of the country to highlight its diverse and rich cultural heritage to the world.

More significantly, if India can successfully convince both Russia and the West—since it has good relations with both, to bring an early end to the Ukraine war, it will certainly strengthen its image as an important and responsible global player.

But importantly, under its chairmanship India can save the G20 and maintain its role as a major global forum to address future economic challenges and call for collective leadership to deal with them.

However, how it pans out will depend not only on India but more on factors that will shape the emerging global situation in the coming months.