The BJP, which has an electoral alliance with the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra, has a summary analysis for all the talk: pressure tactics on the eve of the Lok Sabha elections. "They want more seats in Maharashtra," a senior BJP leader says, adding sternly, "If he asks for something like 35 seats we will break his government." A city unit leader dismissed the Sena noise, saying: "We saw the stuff that came here. I doubt they can draw more than a blank beyond Maharashtra." His caustic allusion was to the two-day Shiv Sena Rajya Pramukh Parishad last week, which was attended by Sena leaders from 18 states.
Appealing to all seemed to be the motto: tapping Tamil sentiment by praising the LTTE; attacking terrorism—a boost to the Northeast, J&K and Punjab units; and on a wider spectrum taking up issues like theuniform civil code and illegal migration. The Hindi language issue may have caused the local Shiv Sainik much heartburn. Howlers apart, there was no doubt about the "go national" air, replete with assurances from Chief Minister Manohar Joshi that he would smooth the way for Shiv Sainiks in other states by talking to his counterparts. Joshi, who spoke of only Thackeray being able to "shake up the whole nation", ruffled a few feathers when he said that the BJP should include the uniform election code in its manifesto. "Perhaps he should read before speaking," says a BJP National Executive member.
A Sena leader close to Thackeray says the Parishad was planned in response to the BJP maha adhiveshan and describes the exercise as an effort to "keep the pressure on the BJP". However, state minister Pramod Navalkar observes that the event should not be dismissed as the party had grown to its present form from very small beginnings in Maharashtra. "I saw the same kind of confidence in the Rajya Pramukhs that I had seen in the Shakha Pramukhs when we first contested the Vidhan Sabha elections. There is always a first step," he says.
Staving off moves to tie up in other states, BJP leaders cite the Goa and Uttar Pradesh assembly polls as "glaring examples" of the Sena's nonexistent electoral might outside Maharashtra. BJP leaders liken Sena candidates in the last Uttar Pradesh assembly polls to "unguided missiles" working "beyond the range of Thackeray's discipline".
This despite the fact that the Sena which claims its presence in 62 districts of Uttar Pradesh, upholds the state where it won an assembly seat beyond Maharashtra (Faizabad), as one of its success stories. "We leave alliances to the state units. In the last assembly polls when I asked the Uttar Pradesh unit about an alliance with the Sena they refused, saying the Sena candidates are no different from independents," says Pramod Mahajan, BJP general secretary.
HOWEVER, the 'pressure' for more seats in Maharashtra is what BJP leaders are keeping in mind. Mahajan,the architect of the BJP-Sena alliance concedes Thackeray's "legitimate right to go to the national level". Mahajan warns against positions that could threaten the alliance. "If we do go alone, we will lose a probable prime minister and he will lose an actual chief minister," he says.
The Sena-BJP alliance, often likened to a rocky marriage, gets thornier when it's time to talk about who gets how many seats. The alliance almost came apart as they arm-wrestled over assembly seats in Maharashtra earlier this year. BJP leaders, unhappy at being given 112 out of a total of 288 seats, pushed till they got 117. The BJP buttressed its argument for more seats, armed with poll statistics from the February 1990 Maharashtra assembly polls, where they had won 42 of the 105 seats they contested, while the Sena bagged 52 out of 183 seats.
At a lower level, alliances between the two did not work out. In the municipal council elections for Kalyan, New Bombay and Aurangabad, that followed the assembly polls, they fought separately. "Hindutva is not the only common factor, local units may decide that they are strong enough to fight alone," says Mahajan.
But what lies ahead is major: the Lok Sabha. Analysts say this is the velcro factor that has mitigated differences over Enron, wooing Muslims and a host of other issues. The BJP has also grinned through the Sena chief's barbs. "They will tolerate this till the Lok Sabha elections. Before that there is no gain in open fighting," says state Congress general secretary Kripashanker Singh.
Behind the tough talk top BJP sources allege a deeper plan. "There is a design which the Sena is incapable of; a strategy that looks like the handiwork of Sharad Pawar," BJP sources say, offering instances: the sudden, excessive coverage in the Marathi press for Thackeray's utterances and for BJP dissidents; and his interview in the Sena eveninger Dopahar Ka Saamna critical of the BJP which was timed with the maha adhiveshan. But the designs apart, the two are capable of falling apart on their own with regard to seat adjustments.
