There has been a rise of the far right across Europe—echoing this, the United Kingdom Independence Party’s (UKIP) entry in the 2015 UK general elections could have an effect on the outcome and future of politics here.
It has already had an impact for at least the time being, influencing policy and language of across major political parties. Says Professor Tony Travers, department of government and director of LSE, “It has made the parties more willing to sound constrained about immigration and Conservatives’ pledge for referendum to stay in the EU.”
While Keith Vaz, Labour MP, believes UKIP is a “protest party” which will not last long, Pramjit Dhanda, former Labour minister, warns: “We must be wary of it. All the three major parties need to redouble their efforts to stop it.”
Explaining the emergence of UKIP, Prof Travers says, “The Labour and Conservative vote has been declining since the 1960s. In the last elections, it was 65 per cent. So there is a gradual move from class- and interest-based politics to something different. Due to their decline, both these parties find themselves cut off from a proportion of the electorate.” What’s been happening is that the old and poor white electorate have found “they are left behind and have found support in UKIP”. Old mainstream parties no longer have a committed influence.
UKIP as a result is now a mainstream UK party. And Travers explains: “Nigel Farage has tried to stop the more racist voices. And the party, in a way, is not what the British National Party (BNP) was, and thereby has made an impact.”
Some Asians have also joined UKIP and many have wondered why they would be attracted to a strongly anti-immigration party. But Prof Travers analyses: “There is evidence in this country and others that the earlier arrived migrants who have settled and become financially affluent like the Indian community are not always sympathetic towards newer migrants.”
Interestingly, there has been some chatter that in years to come, UKIP may replace the Lib Dems as the third largest party. Ironically, it is a fact that in this election UKIP could overtake them in voteshare. In the first-past-the-post form of elections they cannot take the seats. Prof Travers estimates: “UKIP could have a voteshare of 13 per cent and yet get only maybe two seats, while the Scottish National Party could have only 4 per cent voteshare and have 50 seats and the Lib Dems could have 8 per cent voteshare but 25-30 seats.”
If Farage gets a seat and they do fairly well, “UKIP will be here for a while as they would have captured the dispossessed voice,” concludes Prof Travers.
