Last week, as the mood within the BJP turned from euphoric to sombre, a senior party leader explained the reason. “Nirash hai, naummeed naheen hain, (we’re disappointed, but not without hope),” he said. This ‘disappointment’ among people who voted for Narendra Modi in 2014 is the result of the widening gulf between his promises and their delivery. There is also dismay within the party at the demise of its hallmark collegiate style of functioning. Yet, despite the concentration of power in the party leadership, and signs of it slipping, there is no talk of rebellion. Even the RSS appears to have put its entire weight behind the BJP’s Bihar campaign after its chief seemingly marred the party’s prospects by calling for a review of the reservation policy. The hope is to assist in stealing a win and force a share of the spoils.
So what would be Modi’s first step if he squeaks through? Would he alter his strategy, temper arrogance and become more inclusive or will he continue to pit one community against another? Will he still indulge the cultural right-wing and ignore the economic right’s expectations of good governance and reforms? Eventually, the path he opts for will depend on his assessment of how he snatched an unlikely victory. Given the polarised nature of the Bihar campaign, it is unlikely that Modi will conclude that ‘development’ had trumped social justice.
Modi’s post-verdict decisions will possibly be preceded by a rediscovery of his old pragmatism that has not been displayed in his premiership so far. Even after a win, Modi will be aware of how close he was to a rout. Because the opposition within closed ranks after concerted critiques of Hindutva, Modi will remove irritants that have bothered the Sangh and party leadership. The trimurti would lose its clout and Modi will have to choose between jettisoning either of his two aides. It will be a tough call—should he retain control of the party and fight to secure a fresh term for Amit Shah or ought he aim for greater leverage within government and continue seeking Arun Jaitley’s assistance in several ministries besides the one(s) he is officially in charge of?
During the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls, the only way Modi could avoid pursuing the Sangh’s cultural agenda was going the whole hog on economic reforms. Yet, because his mandate’s emphatic nature was due to a communally charged campaign in Uttar Pradesh, he signalled the primacy of Hindutva in his scheme of things by giving charge of the bypolls in August 2014 to Yogi Adityanath. He also made no effort to control two polarising campaigns—love jehad and ghar wapasi. Once Modi made his choice clear, his silences became ominous. A victory in Bihar will embolden him and the pretence of lip-service will be given up.
Make no mistake, a victorious Modi will not dust the grime of Dadri and suspend all beef-talk. There will be no eagerness to prove that he took note of Obama’s nudge to uphold the Constitution. After all, he made no amends after being denied a US visa. He waited till he could demand one. India’s demographic might will ensure that Modi cannot be sidelined on the international arena. Because political power is his main objective, Modi will not worry that his silence will grow like cancer and engulf the nation. A win in Bihar will demonstrate that the carcinogen he nurtures has the capacity to devour opponents.
A win will foreclose whatever possibility exists of Modi deciding to work with the Opposition. But because he knows that for the Indian economy to revive, he requires renewed investments, he will examine strategies to engage investors not unduly worried about social inclusiveness. Because Bihar will demonstrate that success is more easily achieved by cultural and social antagonism, impending important state polls before 2019 will necessitate that the social pot is kept boiling.
It will, in all probability, be a neat power-sharing arrangement between a Modi in search of permanence in the nation’s history and others who pursue goals of defining nationhood on the basis of cultural nationalism and not territorial nationalism. Modi’s promise of a Congress-mukt Bharat will become a reality.
(Modi biographer Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay’s new book is Sikhs, The Untold Agony of 1984)
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The BJP has tried to engineer a decisive split in Bihar’s Dalit votes, but the turnout in the first three
phases of the ongoing polls suggest NDA voters are less enthusiastic than those of the Grand Alliance.
