With Hizbul Mujahideen supreme commander Syed Salahuddin abruptly calling off a tenuous ceasefire, the possibility of fissures in the organisation has increased. But this may not happen in a hurry. That too if Abdul Majid Dar has to escape being labelled a New Delhi agent.
For now, Dar, his four divisional commanders and interlocutor Fazal-ul-Haque Qureshi have all gone underground. Theyve neither endorsed nor criticised the August 8 ceasefire withdrawal. The silence has been interpreted variously. CM Farooq Abdullahs declaration on Wednesday that the Hizbul leadership in the Valley was "unhappy" with Islamabads calling off the ceasefire has only added grist to the rumour mill that the Hizbul may split. Further, Farooq also mentioned he was willing to dissolve the assembly if the Hizbul was willing to participate in elections, again giving credence to the belief that there is some churning.
But security officials feel Dar may take some time before making any moves. "If he breaks with the Pakistan wing now, he risks being termed a second Kukka Parrey (head of a pro-government militia which helped smash counter-insurgency in 1995) which hed like to avoid at all costs," says an intelligence official.
But Dar has a different standing. Being an important functionary in the most powerful militant group, hell be stepping gingerly. That he has been in touch with New Delhis emissaries for a while before the ceasefire announcement and during its operation is well known. In these circumstances, it will be difficult for him to get back to Pakistan when he is being monitored by the different agencies in the Valley. "He is a marked man now and virtually trapped," says a senior police officer.
Dar is already on record stating that the Hizbuls shoora had done a stock-taking and found the focus of their struggle was getting blurred. He found there was a yearning for peace among the people which couldnt be ignored. The Hizbuls fight was for Kashmiris and not to be mixed with the pan-Islamic jehad of other tanzeems like the Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Jaish-i-Mohammed. "Therefore, it will take time for him to consolidate his position and find enough backers in the group when he breaks away," says an official.
Also, unlike other former militants like Firdaus Syed, now an mlc, Shabir Wani, formerly of the Al-Jehad, and Imran Rahi of the Al-Burq, who were rehabilitated in the political process, Dar has come in from the cold. "For him to keep that reputation intact and still command respectability is important. So hell tread carefully," says an NC functionary. His, like the Centres, will be a waiting game. To strike, when he is on solid footing.
