Islamabad is virtually under siege. And Pakistan's capital can't remember having seen anything of that order before. Hillary and Chelsea Clinton's visit two years ago was, according to a former intelligence official, "a picnic". But things were different then and Osama bin Laden's shadow didn't loom large over Pakistan-US relations.
But then there are no great expectations from Bill Clinton's visit here. Pakistan, at best, hopes to put its views across. And ironically, the man doing the talking will be the one whom Washington had warned last summer not to put roadblocks in the way of a political government in Islamabad.
But that is hardly any cause for Pakistan to feel elated. Gen Pervez Musharraf-who had declared that his position was vindicated when the White House announced that Clinton would be dropping by in Islamabad after all-had to almost eat his words. It was all thanks to US secretary of state Madeleine Albright's reiteration: "In no way is this an endorsement of the military coup or the government led by Gen Musharraf."
Such tough talking, believe some, cannot gloss over the fact that the US, even when political governments have been in place in Islamabad, has always known who wields the real power. Consequently, communication lines between the Americans and the general headquarters in Rawalpindi have always been open.
Says columnist M.H. Askari: "American heads of state have had very close relations with military rulers in the past. It would be naive to believe that any amount of sermonising would either hasten the process of restoration of democracy or restore status quo ante as on October 12, 1999. That is one issue best left to the ongoing judicial process to determine."
According to commentator and analyst M.B. Naqvi, President Clinton seems to have bought the line sold by Centcom (US central command) chief Gen Anthony Zinni and many others who have emphasised that putting Pakistan in a sort of political quarantine seemed counter-productive. Zinni had been to Pakistan with Clinton's message for Musharraf when the Kargil operation was under way.
For his part, Musharraf says the agenda for talks with Clinton would include strengthening bilateral relations, lifting US sanctions and Kashmir. Says former foreign secretary Najmuddin Sheikh: "There is a lot of talk in Washington where concern for peace and security in the region is being expressed together with preventing proliferation. The reason behind threats to peace in the region is Kashmir and the Americans are aware of this. So they'll discuss it though little will be made public." No other US president, except Clinton, has highlighted the Kashmir issue as the source of tensions in the region and one does not see him abandoning it to improve relations with New Delhi.
In fact, when Clinton met Nawaz Sharif in Washington last July, he promised to take personal interest in finding a solution to Kashmir. How he wriggles out of this while in New Delhi, which has said 'no' to third-party mediation, remains to be seen. However, on issues like terrorism, nuclear stabilisation, democracy and Afghanistan, Pakistan should certainly not shy away from talks as these are areas of concern not only for Washington but increasingly so for Pakistan too. But some, like India specialist Khalid Mahmud, feel "Pakistanis do not necessarily share the US perception of who is a terrorist and who is a crusader for a just cause and no government here can overlook the popular sense of right or wrong. In such a situation, the US will have to reorient its basic approach and come to terms with a regime which it considers guilty of 'uncivilised behaviour', rather than trying to assign Pakistan a henchman's job in the area".
Not only will Islamabad be watching Clinton's visit vis-a-vis the latter's new-found interests in New Delhi, it will also monitor America's growing interest in Bangladesh. Sheikh emphasises this: "We have to watch very carefully this US description of Bangladesh as a moderate Islamic state." In fact, this was exactly the description used by Uncle Sam for Pakistan in the good old days.
The time and energy spent by the Vajpayee government to prevent Clinton's visit to Islamabad has surprised many here, as in the final analysis there was little that New Delhi could gain from such a move. Despite a military coup, it is business as usual where world capitals are concerned, with both Washington and London accepting Musharraf's nominees as ambassador and high commissioner. And so, New Delhi might be all about expanding markets but it is Islamabad's involvement in the region that peace rests upon. #
