The Trump administration is examining whether confidential information was leaked after anonymous Polymarket accounts accurately predicted a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, earning more than $600,000.
The Wall Street Journal reported similar prediction market bets during the 2024 election.
The White House and betting platforms have tightened scrutiny and ethics measures to prevent the misuse of non-public information.
US President Donald Trump's administration is facing heightened scrutiny over possible leaks of confidential information after a series of high-value prediction market bets correctly anticipated a U.S.-Iran ceasefire earlier this year, according to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ).
The newspaper reported that concerns first emerged within the White House Counsel's Office after anonymous Polymarket users wagered five-figure sums that Washington and Tehran would reach an initial ceasefire agreement before the end of April.
According to people familiar with the matter, senior administration officials worried that the traders may have had access to non-public information, prompting White House lawyers to quietly examine whether anyone inside the administration could have been responsible. As prediction market activity surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict grew, officials became increasingly concerned that sensitive information was finding its way into public betting markets.
The WSJ reported that officials suspected confidential government information may have influenced trades on platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi.
The newspaper, citing White House lawyers, said tracing the source of any leak would be particularly challenging because Polymarket permits users to trade through anonymous accounts.
The volume of war-related wagers has increased since the conflict began in February, fuelling concerns that privileged information could be exploited for financial gain. In March, the White House circulated an internal memo reminding employees that using or sharing non-public information for monetary benefit violated ethics rules.
The prediction that attracted the most attention involved whether an initial ceasefire would be announced before the end of April.
Trump announced an initial ceasefire with Iran on April 8. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps later estimated that three anonymous Polymarket accounts collectively earned more than $600,000 after accurately predicting the development.
The controversy widened after Gabriel Perez, Trump's teleprompter operator, became the subject of an investigation into whether he used advance knowledge of presidential speeches to place profitable bets.
The White House confirmed that Perez is being investigated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over wagers reportedly exceeding $100,000.
Press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration had no prior knowledge of Perez's betting activity and noted that ethics guidelines prohibit White House employees from participating in such trades. She added that Trump was angered by allegations that officials may have attempted to profit from confidential government information.
Perez, who has worked as a technical assistant to the president since 2016, has since been placed on unpaid leave pending the outcome of the investigation.
The WSJ said similar issues surfaced during the 2024 presidential campaign, when prediction markets accurately anticipated Trump's vice-presidential pick.
According to people familiar with the matter, two previously undisclosed bets were reportedly based on information that Trump would choose JD Vance as his running mate.
Election-related contracts on Polymarket have generated more than $325 million in trading volume.
Kalshi, meanwhile, has barred dozens of campaign staff members from placing bets involving their own candidates.
“Our teams work 24/7 to monitor and flag any anomalous trading patterns, and we investigate every single one of them,” Elisabeth Diana, the spokeswoman for Kalshi, as reported by WSJ.
