Prince Who Finally Became King

Prince Charles now stands in solitary splendour. M.K. Stalin, who used to keep him company as the prince in perpetual waiting, finally stepped up to become king as he led the DMK to a convincing, though not unexpected, win in Tamil Nadu. Stalin’s final promotion as chief minister had been held back only by two persons—his political rival J. Jayalalitha and his father M. Karunanidhi, who refused to proclaim him as CM candidate in 2016.

Armed with a comfortable majority, unlike in 2006 when his father was taunted for heading a minority government (with outside support), the 68-year-old Stalin can stride confidently to provide an efficient government on his own terms. He has promised much, including a seven-point vision document for Tamil Nadu for the next decade and a host of populist promises that need to be fulfilled. But the constraints—financial and administrative—of fighting the second wave of Covid may hamper his start. In fact, he had talked of battling a public debt of Rs 5 lakh crore left behind by the AIADMK government.

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Stalin’s tenure would also be watched on how he shapes his ties with the Centre, since he had turned the narrative of the assembly election into a clash between Tamil culture and the ‘invading’ BJP, even though the contest was essentially between the DMK and the AIADMK. Apparently, the aggression he displayed as opposition leader would be toned down into pragmatism because of the need to run a government and extract maximum support from Delhi. “He is a pragmatist like his father, who did not bat an eyelid when he joined the NDA to save his government in 1999 and then became part of the Atal Behari Vajpayee government. Similarly, the DMK seamlessly switched to the UPA in 2004 to be part of its two governments, exhibiting great adjustment skills,” observes a retired IAS officer who worked with Karunanidhi.

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To walk down that path of pragmatism, Stalin’s political posturing needs to be more flexible. He has already toned down the DMK’s ‘anti-Hindu’ rhetoric, leaving ‘Hindu baiting’ to his Dalit ally, the VCK. Disentangling himself from the anti-Tamil propaganda he had painted the BJP with would be trickier. He has to do that carefully, without appearing opportunistic and antagonising his present allies, including the Congress. A slice of this pragmatism was on display when the DMK dropped its opposition to letting Sterlite operate its two oxygen plants to tackle the shortage of the life-saving gas. That he chose to be on the same page as the AIADMK, ignoring the protestations of his allies like the MDMK and the VCK, proved that he can be reasonable despite his rhetoric.

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Politically, these elections have helped Stalin to finally step out of his father’s overbearing shadow. He has now convincingly won back-to-back elections—the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2021 assembly polls—to establish himself as the state’s numero uno politician. Election strategist Prashant Kishore’s packaging of Stalin might have come in handy, but there is no denying that his growing stature as a leader contributed in keeping the DMK’s hopes high. With the party and government firmly in his control, Stalin cannot be faulted if he fast-forwards his son Udhayanidhi’s political ascent. “His father delayed it for too long. Stalin would not make the same mistake,” admits a DMK senior. Also, Udhayanidhi would not be as patient as his father.

Defeated, Not Disgraced

Another political succession also happened in Tamil Nadu—though in defeat. Edappadi K. Palaniswami firmly stepped into the shoes of his mentor Jayalalitha even as the AIADMK lost after a decade in power. Like Jayalalitha in 2006, EPS put up such a tough fight that the AIADMK notched up a healthy 66 seats, proving that the party was no pushover. EPS himself scored a massive win by a margin of nearly a lakh votes.

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The AIADMK’s strong show was equally an evidence of his government’s satisfactory performance and also the decisive control of the AIADMK under his leadership. EPS might have been voted out, but that healthy final tally neutralised any threat that could have been posed by Sasikala and her nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran if the AIADMK had been reduced to 30 MLAs or less. “By staying strong and refusing to accept any compromise with the Sasikala family ahead of the elections, EPS took an immense risk, but he has insulated the party from that family,” says newly elected MLA Manoj Pandian. “If anything, those who had envisaged a political future with Sasikala would now desert her and come back to us.”

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EPS has also ensured that Tamil Nadu’s politics will remain bipolar, with the DMK and AIADMK occupying opposite ends. “A poor show by the AIADMK would have encouraged other fringe parties like Seeman’s NTK to get more strident for occupying the opposition stage. The strong presence of the DMK and the AIADMK is a safeguard against the emergence of divisive and extreme political outfits in the state,” observes political commentator Raveenthran Thuraisamy.

A Distant Third

The electoral pull to emerge as an alternative to the two Dravidian majors has always seen smaller parties throw their hats into the election ring in the hope that the uncommitted voters would swing their way. Assembly election 2021 was no different as three smaller players hoped to cash in—only to find their calculations go awry.

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Leading the pack was actor-turned-politician Kamal Haasan, whose MNM hoped to wean young urban voters towards it after registering its presence in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Kamal and most of his top candidates contested only from urban constituencies, with the actor trying his luck from Coimbatore South. He almost pulled it off and looked all set to be his party’s lone winner before BJP candidate Vanathi Srinivasan pipped him to the post. The party did well in the urban seats, coming third in many places.

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Though Kamal had promised that he was in politics for the long haul, the arduous campaign and huge expenditure would be major deterrents. His next movie is already on the sets and the next season of Bigg Boss awaits his return. Doing what he likes best would be too much of a temptation and could make Kamal a two-election phenomenon.

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While Dhinakaran might have spoilt the AIADMK’s chance in 20 seats, what he did not anticipate was that he would himself drown without a trace. He, his party (the AMMK) and his aunt Sasikala look destined for political oblivion after failing to win a single seat. That leaves only Seeman and his NTK, which finished third in many places and increased its voteshare to nearly seven per cent, though Seeman finished third in a seat outside Chennai.

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“While Seeman might attract young voters, unless his party marks its presence in the assembly, he cannot make a lasting impact,” says a former advisor to the politician. “His incremental voteshare can be useful only if he enters into an alliance and bargains for seats. But, since he has chosen to be a lone ranger, he might exhaust himself soon unless he changes his strategy.”

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Take Off In Pondy

Congress cedes space to the BJP in former stronghold

Three months ago, no one would have imagined a government in Pondicherry that would include the BJP. Post elections, the party is all set to make its political entry in the Union territory with six MLAs, who will also be part of a coalition government.
As it had done in many small states, the BJP poached strong leaders from the Congress to improve its chances of winning assembly seats. It was easier in Pondicherry, where there are only 10 lakh voters and candidates matter more than parties.

When its plan of foisting A. Namassivayam as the chief minister failed to materialise, as local strongman N. Rengasamy refused to vacate his claim, the BJP did a quick compromise by seeking more seats to contest. In the process, it became the second largest party of the alliance led by the AINRC, reducing the AIADMK to a nonentity. The results also showed that only the AINRC (10 seats) and the BJP (6) would be part of the government as the AIADMK failed to win a single seat in the 30-member assembly. Emerging as the number two player in the state, the BJP eclipsed the Congress, which used to be a dominant force until recently. The Congress could win just two seats—its lowest in over five decades—further underlining the party ceding political space to the BJP in former strongholds.

By G.C. Shekhar in Chennai