Bloody Tuesday, where 100 persons were massacred across Kashmir, could not have come at a worse time. A tenuous dialogue process was under way with the Hizbul Mujahideen, which had earlier announced a ceasefire to pave the way for talks. The move had generated a fair amount of optimism in the people even though the roadmap to peace did not look very well charted out. It was then that the militants, believed to be from the Lashkar-e-Toiba, struck ruthlessly, gunning down innocents at seven separate locations.
The bloodbath had a twin purpose: test the security forces' nerves when they were committed to a ceasefire regime and subvert the incipient peace process. "In seven hours on Tuesday, that objective was served. The militants had succeeded in spreading mayhem and stymie the peace process in a murderous round of terrorism," says a top security official.
Adds T.R. Kakkar, special secretary (Kashmir) in the home ministry, "Once the ceasefire was announced, we did expect acts of violence to increase and accordingly made arrangements. But the whole state is a soft target and that is a problem. The government has stepped up security in the Valley."
Yet there is no denying, senior security sources in New Delhi say, that the government ought to have taken a comprehensive view before responding to the Hizbul offer, with one eye on the possible consequences. This was clearly not calibrated enough.
Though distressed by the serial killings, New Delhi tried its best to put up a brave face and swiftly sent down its emissary, home secretary Kamal Pande, to meet up with the five Hizbul Mujahideen commanders at the Nehru Guest House in Srinagar. The move, clearly, was to obliterate the blot caused by Tuesday's gruesome incidents and to prove to the militants, the nation and the world at large that New Delhi would push ahead with the talks.
To consolidate on the Centre's best chance for peace, Fazal-ul-Haque Qureshi, a former member of the Al-Fateh, who was chosen as a go-between, was promptly enlisted to arrange a meeting of both sides. In the full glare of the international media, Pande hurriedly announced on Thursday that a team headed by special secretary (internal security) M.B. Kaushal, along with principal home secretary C.S. Phunsong and other members of the Intelligence Bureau (IB) and raw, would work out the ground rules for the ceasefire. On the Hizbul's part, deputy commander Masood Ahmed said the team would be headed by former chief commander Khalid Saifullah.
"We're keen to take the peace process to its logical conclusion. The modalities for restoration of peace will be pursued seriously," Pande told Outlook. Another meeting is scheduled next week between both committees to thrash out the details on the ceasefire modalities.
As if that was not enough, and for doubly assuring the Kashmiris, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee led an all-party delegation to Pahalgam along with defence minister George Fernandes and Congress president Sonia Gandhi. "The purpose behind the visit was to demonstrate that the Centre was not going to be cowed down by the killings and was keen on capitalising on the Hizbul's olive branch," says a minister in the National Conference.
Indeed, after having broken the ice with the Hizbul, the government's gameplan is to buy time for peace. "Once the modalities for the ceasefire are worked out, we hope to extend it. Maybe for six months... If the government can win the confidence of the Hizbul, wonders can be worked," says an IB official.
The Centre's resolve, according to sources in the capital, has been strengthened by the fact that the peace initiative has the backing of the US President. Moreover, the Pakistan government, under American pressure, seems to be supportive of the moves to resolve the Kashmir crisis. Observes a home ministry official: "Though the Lashkar-e-Toiba is based in Pakistan, our feedback is that the Pakistan government is not opposed to the peace initiative."
That the stakes for the Hizbul Mujahideen and the Centre are immense in the ongoing peace process is an understatement. Having been now virtually shunned by the Hurriyat and the Jamaat-e-Islami for bypassing them and initiating talks with New Delhi, the Hizbul is more than eager to see that their ceasefire offer makes for a quantum shift in the ground situation. Says Hurriyat chairman Abdul Ghani Bhat, "In a complicated scenario like this, everyone has to be carried along. One mujahid is enough to spread pandemonium and we are witness to this."
Worse, discordant voices emanating from Islamabad have only added to the Hizbul's unease. "For all practical purposes, the Hizbul is now in the process of coming overground and hoping to find a dominant political space," says a senior JKLF functionary. Should the talks sour or New Delhi renege on any assurances, it would be extremely tough for the Hizbul to retain its hold over the people.
Already, there are chinks in the Hizbul's armour. Just before the ceasefire offer on July 24, there was a massive reorganisation of this cadre-based outfit where divisional commanders were changed and responsibilities reallocated. "That caused some heartburn among the ranks. We are sure there will be a switch in loyalties with some defecting to the other outfits," says a bsf official.
Indeed, some middle-tier leaders are upset over the readiness of the outfit's higher echelons to hold talks with New Delhi, which they hold in great suspicion. But the initial going has been smooth and it has helped bolster confidence. Deputy commander Masood Ahmed, for instance, has already pointed out that the first round of talks with home ministry officials on Thursday was 'positive', indicating that the outfit had reposed a lot of faith in New Delhi.
As for the BJP-led government, many feel, this is their best shot at beginning a meaningful peace process and taking it forward. With the Hizbul on their side, at least for the moment, it has managed to wean away the backbone of Kashmiri militancy. "The Hizbul comprises over 50 per cent of the militants in the state. They should use this opportunity to their advantage fully," says a senior official in the state administration. Sincerity seems to be the key word.
But amid the resolve shown by the Centre and the Hizbul Mujahideen, the fact that there was a message behind the August 1 carnage rang loud and clear. According to army officers in Srinagar, the pan-Islamic outfits were out to prove that despite the Hizbul's absence on the ground, they had enough firepower and logistics to operate and second, would at all costs vitiate any attempt for peace. That almost seemed true.
Despite bristling security at the pilgrim base camp in Pahalgam, two militants - one dressed in army fatigues - sneaked through the Ardoo side, crossed the bridge across the Lidder river just as it was getting dark and fired on the security camp first. "By the time we reacted, it was too late. They began firing and lobbing grenades at the pilgrims," says Subash Chand, a CRPF jawan. After breaching the security grid, the two militants engaged the two companies of the paramilitary force for a couple of hours. Thirty-five people were killed, including pilgrims, shopkeepers and porters. "As a red herring for the security forces, one of the militants threw an identity card from Aligarh Muslim University," says bsf Inspector General Vijay Kumar.
It was the first of a string of attacks. As the administration was coming to grips with the barbaric bloodletting in Pahalgam, there were two other almost simultaneous strikes a couple of hours later, in Mirbazar and Achhabal in Anantnag. Migrant labourers from Bihar and Madhya Pradesh were woken up by the militants, also dressed in army apparel, ostensibly to help extricate a vehicle. They had hardly moved a few paces when the group of six militants unleashed a volley of bullets, killing 18. And within minutes, another group struck in Sandoo in Achhabal where seven brick kiln workers were shot after being separated from the womenfolk in their hamlet. "There was no warning. They fired at will," says Shanker, a labourer who managed to escape.
The spate of wholesale killings continued. Seven members of a family in Kupwara were wiped out just after midnight. Then, 11 Hindu villagers were surrounded by four militants in Pogal Paristan village in Doda and butchered mercilessly. The bizarre and bloody drama was enacted in Kishtwar where they signed off by killing eight members of a village defence committee.
Ironically, security forces were aware that jehadi outfits like the Lashkar and the Jaish-i-Mohammed would strike after the Hizbul's offer of a unilateral ceasefire on July 24. "We had radio intercepts that they would strike at soft targets. The Amarnath yatra was topmost on their agenda," says a senior police officer. The millennium yatra was expected to see the biggest turnout with almost 2 lakh expected till August 15. Why then was nothing done to prevent the attacks? And why was security not beefed up?
"The canvas is far too wide. We've done our best to cover the most vulnerable spots," says the bsf's Kumar. Others in the Unified Command Council, which oversees counter-insurgency operations, termed the strikes as 'false bravado'. "Choosing soft targets like unarmed labourers and pilgrims is no courageous act. If they had hit security installations, it would have shaken us up," says a Rashtriya Rifles colonel. "The toll would have been higher if they had succeeded in bursting the grenade at the yatri registration camp in Jammu on Tuesday morning," adds an army major.
That the shock value of these killings had shaken the security fabric in the Valley was apparent. Reinforcements were called in at unguarded spots. Pahalgam was converted into a fortress and the route to Chandanwari sanitised further. And the Amarnath yatra resumed. "Yet, the militants had succeeded in diluting the impact of the Hizbul's ceasefire offer," says a Hurriyat member.
The massacres have shocked people. Almost all organisations, including the Bar Association, which is normally circumspect in condemning atrocities of this nature, has criticised the incidents. "This is the worst serial killings in the history of militancy in the Valley. Chitsinghpura, where 35 Sikhs were killed in March, pales into insignificance," said advocate Majid Jamaluddin.
In fact, security forces maintain that "soft targeting" would continue to be carried out by the militant outfits. "They will give it a gap. When talks with the Hizbul achieve some pace, there will be trouble again," says an intelligence official. The security apparatus have no illusions about the strike power of the Lashkar and Jaish.
Says a security source, "For a peace operation of the size that we are looking at, coordination among security organisations would have to be really intense and real-time. Since information in most cases is only on a strict need-to-know basis because of operational requirements, there are some attendant challenges as well."
Contrary to the popular perception that the Lashkar and Jaish ranks exclusively comprise of foreigners, intelligence officials say both groups have recruited locals for their operations. While the Hizbul had to a great extent facilitated the operations of these two outfits when they were working in tandem because of their knowledge of the terrain and people, the groups have the ability to operate on their own. In the months of June and July alone, state intelligence reports indicate that over 600 locals were recruited by the groups - money being the chief incentive. "Just on Friday, seven youths from Kupwara crossed over to PoK," says a senior official.
The other reason for the Centre to tread cautiously is the memory of the failed initiative of February 1996. At that time, five militants, including Shabir Wani, Babar Badr, Imran Rahi, Bilal Lodi and Moiuddin Lone, began talks first with the Congress government and then with Deve Gowda's. "Then, Narasimha Rao had said short of azadi, the sky is the limit," says Shabir Wani, a former member of the Al-Jehad. Finally, as expected, nothing came of the talks.
However, in the current climate, there is also the danger of the other pro-jehadi outfits turning their guns on the Hizbul. "If that were to happen, the Hizbul commanders would come overboard and help the security forces in pinpointing the dens of the other pro-Pak outfits," says a home department official.
Realising that it is on a good wicket, the Centre is aware it has to work sincerely with the Hizbul. "No other militant outfit will ever trust its intentions if this enterprise also fails," says Mushtaq Rather, a student leader of the Jammu and Kashmir University.
Undoubtedly, the road ahead is strewn with minefields and booby traps. That further attacks will continue is certain. "The road to peace is going to be bloody. There are enough examples in history to go by. See Northern Ireland, it's a prime example," says a separatist leader. That window of opportunity and hope which many saw in the Hizbul's peace offer is still open. The shutters on it may come down heavily if a double game is played out. Then, Kashmir will be as it always is - a festering wound in the body politic.
