New San Over Irrawaddy

There's a real sense of euphoria at the headquarters of Myanmar's main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). It's a hive of activity and excitement. The ramshackle offices, near the famous Shwedagon Pagoda here, is brimming with party activists. Outside, thousands of supporters and well-wishers have gathered to see their leader—Aung San Suu Kyi.

The crowd outside the offices starts chanting her name the moment they receive news of her impending arrival. The chant gets louder and louder, as her car gets closer, bursting into a deafening roar as she arrives. The NLD activists do their best to maintain order as, desperate to get a glimpse of their leader, the crowd mobs Suu Kyi. She looks radiant and is overwhelmed by the tumultuous reception. The NLD leaders whisk her inside, apprehensive that the crowd could go out of control. That's the last thing anyone wants—an excuse for the military to place her under house arrest again.

Clearly, this is a different Myanmar to the one seven years ago when Suu Kyi was first freed from house arrest, after languishing for six years in confinement at her lakeside residence. In fact, it's a different Myanmar to the one I visited last month—the first time in eight years. The military authorities had banned me from visiting the country because they didn't like what they heard on the BBC. Now I was being allowed in.

What has changed over a month is what the generals have accepted. After holding secret talks for 20 months with Suu Kyi, who was under house arrest, the generals acknowledged that a new chapter in Myanmar's history was beginning—at least, that's what they said in a press statement put out hours before Suu Kyi was formally released. Government spokesman Colonel Hia Min says Suu Kyi's release is the start of a process which will eventually lead to "our common national objective—multi-party democracy".

But there are growing concerns about the military dictatorship's commitment to political reforms. NLD leaders are obviously ecstatic at Suu Kyi's release—they just can't stop smiling, and almost skipping with excitement. "They're relieved," a senior member of the party says, "they've shouldered all the responsibility for the past 18 months and now that Suu Kyi is free a great weight has been lifted from their shoulders."

Even the residents of Yangon are ebullient and optimistic. Everyone is watching satellite television or listening to foreign broadcasts to hear what is going on. The state-run media has, however, studiously avoided mentioning the dissident leader's release. And yet by the time she arrived at the headquarters for the first time in 20 months, everyone in Yangon knew she'd been freed.

"The country needs her free," says an 80-year-old man buying rice in a shop a few doors down from the NLD offices. "She'll rebuild her party and win the next elections." But others are looking at her to render their struggle for survival less severe. "Now that Suu Kyi is free, things will get better. We'll get more meat and vegetables to eat," says a mother shopping in the market near the headquarters.

With the initial euphoria subsiding, questions about progress of the dialogue process between the NLD and the junta persist. Suu Kyi told the press: "Both sides agree that the confidence-building phase is now over. The authorities have said they look forward to moving to a more significant stage of the talks." The NLD spokesman, however, says that no meeting has yet been arranged between Suu Kyi and the generals—"she even scolds me for asking about the next meeting and its agenda".

Both sides indeed have a lot to discuss. The hitch, though, is that it isn't still clear how anxious the military regime is to press on with the new phase of the process.Although her release was unconditional, UN sources say that Suu Kyi had insisted on a more focused agenda for any future meeting between her and the generals. The country's troika of generals—Than Shwe, Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt—are believed to have agreed in principle to her request. But then it is they who control the schedule of future meetings—and its pace.

In preparation for future talks with the generals, the opposition will have to reconsider its position on many issues. These include recognition of the 1990 election results, which the NLD won convincingly but the generals refused to accept; the National Convention, which the military created to draw up a new constitution, and from which the NLD walked out; and trade sanctions and humanitarian aid. Any change of position on these issues is expected to spark a vigorous discussion within, at least, the party central committee.

Suu Kyi, though, says the agreement that led to her release compromises neither her ideals nor the NLD's. "The NLD policy is still the same," she says when I interview her on the phone, "We haven't had time to discuss these issues yet." Her first task is to revitalise the NLD, re-open party offices in Yangon and then the divisional offices countrywide. Suu Kyi and others are expected to visit these offices in due course. This will provide her the opportunity to test the military's sincerity in allowing her unrestricted movement and full political rights.

There's also the aspect of involving in the process ethnic groups other than the majority Burmans who comprise 68 per cent of the population. To demonstrate her commitment to this relationship, leaders of four ethnic groups—the Shan, the Mon, the Arakanese and the Chin—and a Kokang MP joined the NLD central committee members to hear her briefing on the first day she was released. Suu Kyi also wants to develop a broad movement for democracy involving all democratic parties. The NLD, obviously, as the largest party—on the basis of the 1990 election results—would remain at the centre of the movement.

Opposition sources say it's far too early to talk about political reform and for even the much-vaunted joint committee—involving representatives of both the military and the NLD—to set priorities in health and education and mobilise humanitarian aid to put these programmes into practice. In fact, finding ways for the two sides to cooperate is likely to be one of the key areas for discussion when the two sides meet next. Much also depends on the international community's response to Suu Kyi's release. The military government expects resumption of humanitarian aid as a reward for releasing her. Japan has already announced its plans to resume significant aid programmes, but most others will want to elicit Suu Kyi's views before proceeding ahead.

At her press conference on May 6, she made it clear that the NLD wasn't opposed to limited humanitarian aid, provided it wasn't siphoned off by the military. "I want to help to make life better for the people," she declared. And the harried citizens are expectant. A young taxi driver's response to her release is typical of Yangon: "Let's hope Suu Kyi's release will make a difference to our lives."

But then the generals remain in control and don't seem to be in a tearing hurry to introduce real political or economic reform. "Suu Kyi's release is the first real step on the road to democratic change," says an Asian diplomat based in Yangon. "Now we have to hope that both sides can keep up the momentum that's been initiated." The next step should see the release of other political prisoners. A UN source says its special envoy for Myanmar, Ismail Razali, expects this to happen. "There may even be more concessions in the pipeline," he said.

But diplomats fear the military could use the pretext of Suu Kyi's release to drag their feet. "The only thing that might help the process progress even further," says a Yangon-based diplomat, "is the fact that Razali is due back here within the next few weeks and Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad is scheduled to follow him within the next two months."

There's no denying that Suu Kyi's release has radically changed Myanmar in one important way. Earlier, the junta was in absolute control and political change seemed impossible. Now there's at least hope.