Sources say the establishment is essentially nudging Benazir to make peace with Musharraf. And pray, what does she get out of the deal? Well, for one, she can return to Pakistan and won't be thrown in jail. With a constitutional amendment barring a person from becoming prime minister more than twice (she has been PM twice), and Washington keen to have Musharraf at the helm, Benazir's best bet is the second option: let Zardari take the reins of the PPP and, in an assured free and fair election, hope to see her husband become prime minister.
Apart from intelligence top brass, Pakistan foreign minister Khurshid Mehmud Kasuri and National Security Advisor Tariq Aziz reportedly have had long meetings with her. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar are helping in the reconciliation.
Dubai-based sources say Benazir isn't happy with the emerging scenario. But an official source exclusively monitoring the husband-wife politics says, "She has been cornered and has no other option but Asif. In fact, while others ask Benazir before making their political moves, Asif simply informs her."
The Sharif story too is unravelling. In a dramatic move last October, Musharraf called up Shahbaz Sharif to condole his father's death. (No calls were made to his elder brother Nawaz whom Musharraf despises). According to a pml-n senator, Shahbaz in the course of that telephonic conversation told Musharraf, "I'm facing the Kabah and can vouch for the fact that I had nothing to do with your being removed from office by my brother (Musharraf had been replaced before he engineered the coup against Nawaz Sharif)."
Then, a fortnight back, Shahbaz flew over to the US, and isn't expected to return to Jeddah again. Next came the news that he had married Tehmina Durrani, whose book My Feudal Lord describes her traumatic marital life with Gulam Mustafa Khar, a former chief minister of Punjab. The Sharifs are reportedly shocked at the nuptial, yet another indication that Shahbaz is going his own way.
Says an establishment source, "Our assessment is that Shahbaz will settle down in London. He'd be allowed at the right time to come back to Pakistan for unifying the two Muslim Leagues. We would then like to see him take on Asif who will also settle in Lahore."
Some political analysts warn against doing a deal with the military. As defence analyst Ayesha Siddiqui wrote in a newspaper, "The military has...a strong sense of commitment towards itself and its objectives." She, therefore, suggests that political parties should stay out of power and launch a genuine pro-democracy movement. "Bargaining with the military might get a party into power for a brief period, but will achieve nothing more than that."
But Senator Mushahid Hussain disagrees. "Gen Musharraf has the capacity to reach out across the political divide and promote national reconciliation through consensus on vital national and international issues," he says. This time, though, the political reconciliation doesn't seem to be on Benazir and Nawaz's terms.
