Ambush Diplomacy

It was neither an oversight nor an accident that Secretary of State Colin Powell failed to inform India about the announcement he was to make in Pakistan. New Delhi's reaction did prompt a damage-control exercise from Washington, but with some irritation. Powell phoned foreign minister Yashwant Sinha last weekend to explain the surprise announcement designating Pakistan an MNNA or a Major Non-NATO Ally, trying to take the sting out of the bite. Sinha's cellphone played temperamental for two days before Powell connected. When he did, he was told he had inadvertently handed the Opposition a weapon for the election.

Diplomatic sensitivity is a precious commodity in this administration—just ask the French. While Indian officials were reeling from the impact, deputy spokesman of the State Department Adam Ereli retorted, "You know this is not something we cared to advertise beforehand." Another irritated State Department official who has spent long years in South Asia said it reminded him of "ten years ago when Indians were always worried about feelings and how we didn't say things right".

But Powell was willing to fly the white flag. Once his entourage touched down in Washington, Assistant Secretary for South Asia Christina Rocca immediately got in touch with her office. A statement crafted on Sunday and released the day after outlined the importance of all relationships in the eternal triangle to assuage Indian feelings. "The United States will continue to build strong bilateral relationships with India and Pakistan. Each of these relationships stands on its own merits," said the peace offering from spokesman Richard Boucher. A day later, he added: "We are consigning the hyphen to history so that we have different relationships with Pakistan and with India."

Interviews with US officials revealed that not informing India was a considered decision. Once the blow was dealt, opinion was divided on whether it was the right thing to do, with the Wild West camp ridiculing Indian sensitivities and others calling Powell's decision to keep India in the dark a mistake. "It wasn't an oversight but there was no intention to deliberately snub India," said one official. But said another: "Someone should have picked up the phone and called India. It was a mistake and I won't defend anyone on this. Powell had a list of incentives—what we call 'deliverables'—for Pakistan and he chose this one." Neither the US embassy in Delhi nor the India office here apparently knew about the decision until after it was made. A Senate source, upset that the Congress wasn't consulted, commented, "They are taking India for granted."

Another twist in the tale might be the Pentagon's role. One analyst suggested that it might be getting back at India for not sending troops to Iraq. "Last year, the Americans were led to believe that India would send troops to Iraq. The Indian army was ready but the government backed down at the last minute. It seems the relationship is not as close as people would like," offered Stephen Cohen, a South Asia expert with the Brookings Institution. "This could be tit-for-tat."

Indian diplomats, although clearly angry, are keen to put the incident behind them. "Our concerns were conveyed and Powell felt compelled to make a statement," said a veteran. "They should have told us but they didn't. It is not as if India had a veto on this," he said crisply, adding that Indo-US relations will survive this hiccup.

Most analysts agree that the MNNA status will not open the floodgates for Pakistan in terms of offensive weapons. One keen observer of South Asia termed it "substantive symbolism", a significant gesture that "adds more strength to the rhetoric that the US won't cut and run", after Pakistan captures key Al Qaeda figures.The designation formalises the supply of arms for the Pakistani military already under way. "It just allows us to more efficiently do what we are already doing," he added. The US move will continue to push Pakistan's strategic shift on three critical fronts: Al Qaeda, non-proliferation and, most importantly for India, the India-Pakistan peace process. "India has a vested interest in Pakistan feeling less insecure and this new status could well be seen as a way to keep Pakistan focused on constructive transformation." And, the status doesn't automatically mean F-16s for Pakistan.