The Many Questions For INDIA Alliance After Hemant Soren's Arrest

Following the arrest of ex-Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren by the ED for his alleged role in a money laundering case , the fiasco that has followed has raised numerous questions for the opposition alliance leading up to the 2024 elections. BJP's 'washing machine politics' and its exercised control over the Enforcement Directorate, have been criticised by the INDIA coalition as a ploy to strategically obliterate the Opposition's presence in the non-BJP ruled states. However, Soren's arrest triggers a conversation on INDIA bloc's momentum in the crucial prelude to the upcoming elections.

Core falling apart?

At a time when the INDIA bloc was putting together the final pieces to the puzzle, the recent exit of Nitish Kumar in Bihar has dealt a solid blow to the core of the alliance. This also comes following West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee's expressed dissatisfaction with the bloc's vision and a public announcement of a possibility of contesting the polls in West Bengal alone. In Odisha, too, Naveen Patnaik's BJD continues to negotiate an ambiguous relation with BJP, while the Congress is pushed to the fringes. Now, with Soren's arrest, the INDIA bloc's presence in the east is further affected, losing another significant face on the alliance's political map.

Soren's arrest also exposes the 14 Lok Sabha seats from Jharkhand, a majority of which went to the BJP in 2019. The seats were projected to comfortably sway in favour of the Congress-JMM-RJD alliance this time. But with Soren's absence, it opens the floor to numerous questions ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, as well as Assembly elections in the state due later this year. These seats remain immensely crucial for the opposition alliance as Soren is the only Adivasi representative figure for the camp, and the JMM-Congress consolidation has been one of the very few less tumultuous facets in the coalition's internal arrangement. Alongside TMC, AAP's arrangement with the Congress also seems to have collapsed in Punjab, (despite a recent tie-up for Chandigarh mayoral elections) with growing pessimism surrounding the CPI(M) and Congress' understanding in Kerala as well.

According to experts, the BJP has been extremely conscious and acute in its strategic attempts to weaken the opposition's coalition base. In the controversial mayoral poll in Chandigarh, the presiding officer who is also a BJP worker, invalidated 8 votes that deprived the AAP-Congress tie-up of an assured win leading to leaders calling out the BJP on "treason and unconstitutional meddling". This instance which has been identified as another ploy by the opposition, along with the spate of ED raids on opposition leaders, show BJP's relentless attitude in preventing even a symbolic victory for the opposition. At this juncture, without an established prime-ministerial face, the dissatisfaction and unrest brewing inside the camp, makes it difficult for INDIA to leverage its advertised image as a collective for a cause before any individual. According to many, it comes across as an inability more than a statement, in a country which has always negotiated aggressively with personality politics. The loss of another important face can weaken the coalition's image further.

Soren, the missing link?

Hemant Soren's place as the solitary windbreak for the BJP's Adivasi project was effectively identified by the Congress and its allies. The Congress' alliance with the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) has been consistent since 2014 - starting with a shared objective of displacing the BJP government in the state, which they did, emphatically, in 2019. Soren’s continuous focus on the Sarna dharma and pursuit of separate recognition of Sarna as a religion had cemented his stature as the able representative of the tribal dominated population in Jharkhand, with the Congress nestled comfortably in the wagon.

The BJP's attempt to flirt with the tribal vote bank has been evident in its plans and measures. In Jharkhand, Babulal Marandi was made the state chief after a failed experiment with a non-tribal candidate Baburam Das in 2019. BJP's strategic appointment of Vishnu Deo Sai as Chhattisgarh's first tribal Chief Minister also brought to light BJP's Adivasi outreach project. Amid this tribal push with BJP gaining significantly better traction in Adivasi dominated areas than before, PM Modi, in a significant move, also visited Birsa Munda's village on his birth anniversary and launched a plan to allocate thousands of crores to make schemes accessible to Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups. 

According to numerous political analysts, Soren has stood as a solitary block between the Adivasi community in and around Jharkhand and the BJP's tribal outreach vision with his constant advocacy of adivasi rights and recognition. Despite having a Dalit chairman helming the coalition, INDIA's failure to address rope in Bahujan Samaj Party or the Azad Samaj Party to the alliance, and lack of representatives from minority communities, aggravates the concern. Soren's active participation and stand was probably the saving grace, in a coalition which stands on a cocktail of differing ideologies.

Speaking to Outlook noted Adivasi activist, Dayamani Barla said, "Just like our leaders Sidho-Kanu, Chand-Bhairva and Birsa Munda, Hemant Soren has reflected the grit and courage of the whole of Adivasi community by not dropping his knees in front of the Modi Government and their politics. We didn't compromise with the British in our struggle, and Soren showed that we will not do the same with the BJP's forces." Thus, with Hemant Soren arrested, the INDIA alliance faces a crucial void in its already weak tribal outreach vision. With the BJP's chance to capitalise on this opportunity increased, analysts feel, the void might open up their avenue into Jharkhand and the Adivasi community as a whole, and pose a problem for the opposition alliance. 

With Soren's arrest, questions on INDIA's cohesiveness and ideological clarity are reignited with the loosening of yet another crucial knot inside the opposition camp.