THE country's oldest political party, the Indian National Congress, must thank the two dominant Dravidian parties—DMK and AIADMK—for giving it a fresh lease of life in Tamil Nadu. A month ago, the Congress was virtually written off but now it has become the most sought after party in the state. And instead of wooing the Dravidian parties, the Congress is being wooed by both.
With most of the pre-election opinion polls indicating a wafer-thin difference in the vote bank of the ruling AIADMK and the main Opposition, the DMK, both the parties have decided to opt for the easiest way out to strengthen their respective bases—align with the Congress. True to his style, Congress President Narasimha Rao is giving contradictory signals to both parties. Said a senior state Congress leader: "Rao should decide one way or the other quickly. Otherwise, we may be stranded."
In the past, whenever there have been simultaneous polls for the assembly and the Lok Sabha, the Congress has always fared well in the state as Tamilians believe it is the only party that could provide a stable government for the country. As a result of this popular perception, the Dravidian party that aligns with the Congress has managed to get more votes than the other.
AIADMK supremo Jayalalitha woke up to this truth before the DMK chief K. Karunanidhi. She first hinted at an alliance in an informal chat with journalists: "There are no permanent enemies or friends in politics." She followed it up by attending the wedding of Rao's grandson in Hyderabad. The AIADMK also decided not to support a proposed "no-confidence" motion against the Congress in Parliament. A section of the Union Cabinet headed by the All India Congress Committee (AICC) treasurer Sitaram Kesri and Margaret Alva began hectic lobbying for the revival of the alliance. But the most powerful faction of the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee (TNCC) headed by former AICC general secretary G. Karuppiah Moopanar, and the Union Commerce Minister, P. Chidambaram, were against a tie-up with the AIADMK.
Just to test the waters, Rao directed AICC General Secretary B.P. Maurya to issue a statement to the effect that the deal with the AIADMK had been finalised. State Congressmen not only resented this but some leaders like the Congress Legislature Party chief S.R. Balasubramaniam and Union minister M. Arunachalam announced that if there was an alliance with the AIADMK they would opt for "political sanyas". Chidambaram declared that he would get back to his lawyer's robe. As a result of this backlash, Maurya hurriedly retracted his earlier statement by blaming the usual villains—journalists—for misquoting him. But the fact that Chidambaram was doing everything to thwart a possible alliance was evident from a series of public meetings he held in the districts where he criticised the AIADMK.
But several Congress MPs were unhappy with this development. They know that the party would not stand anywhere on its own—especially after filmstar Rajnikanth refused to join the camp. Even some of the seemingly virulent anti-Jayalalitha advocates like Anbarasu, Mani Shankar Aiyer (against whom Jayalalitha has recently filed a defamation suit for some comments in his column in Sunday magazine) became turn-coats overnight and started talking about the need to respect the "high command", a euphemism for reviving the alliance with the AIADMK.
With former president R. Venkataraman and the Shankaracharya of the Kanchi Shankara Math also throwing their weight behind a Congress-AIADMK tie-up, the Moopanar group's chances to prevent a possible alliance seemed remote. Said a Moopanar confidant: "The Prime Minister kept repeating that he needs a sizeable number of MPs from the south and one shouldn't stand on some stupid principles." Several leaders, including Kumari Ananthan, Balasubramaniam, Chidambaram and Arunachalam, met Union Industries Minister, K. Karunakaran, and requested him to use his good offices and prevent the Congress party from committing 'harakiri' in Tamil Nadu.
Karunakaran came up with another idea—he said the Congress should align with the DMK. The former Kerala chief minister flew to Madras and consulted various party leaders about this possibility. While the Moopanar faction welcomed such a move, the other factions opposed it tooth and nail. Said the former TNCC president, M.P. Subramaniam: "The DMK's name is associated with the LTTE and Rajiv Gandhi's assassination. If we align with that party we will do a disservice to his memory." Former union minister R. Prabhu even suggested that Sonia Gandhi should interfere and stop any truck with the DMK.
Meanwhile, the Moopanar faction was busy convincing the DMK to think about a political arrangement with the Congress. But Karunanidhi was reluctant to enter into an alliance with the Congress—till several Congress leaders assured him: "We will not ask for any share in power. We'll ensure that your government serves its full term." For Karunanidhi, who has the distinction of being the only chief minister to have been dismissed twice, this assurance was like a dream come true. He told the Congress leaders that he couldn't openly invite them to an alliance but he would give sufficient hints that he was not averse to having ties with the national party. The Moopanar faction told him that if he could give such an assurance within 76 hours, they would get the nod from the Prime Minister.
On March 18, Karunanidhi said he was "open" to forging an alliance with the Congress if the initiative came from them: "There is a need to form the most formidable alliance to throw out the corrupt rule of Jayalalitha. While the Congress is taking action against its ministers, the AIADMK is openly defending them. Further, Rao should be credited for converting a minority government into a majority one and giving a stable government." The Moopanar faction immediately swung into action. After hectic secret parleys where various conditions were discussed for seat-sharing, the DMK agreed to accept the MGR formula—that the regional party would contest 70 per cent of the assembly seats and the national party would be given 70 per cent of the Lok Sabha seats.
The DMK also agreed to concede the lone Parliament seat of the Union Territory of Pondicherry to the Congress.
The AIADMK, it is reliably learnt, also made a counter offer to the Congress by which it would give them 80 per cent of the Lok Sabha seats, 40 per cent of the assembly seats and 70 per cent of Pondicherry's assembly seats.
There are chances of the Congress going alone by default as both the Dravidian parties are under enormous pressure from the cadres to reveal the future course of action. Said a front-ranking DMK leader: "If the Congress decides to tie up with the AIADMK, what face will we have? We have also alienated friendly parties like the CPI and the Forward Bloc." However, the DMK has its slogan ready for the alliance—it is planning to invoke the grand alliance between Churchill, Stalin and Roosevelt during the second world war against Hitler.
Said DMK's administrative committee member Reman Han: "Of course, there are any number of differences between us and the Congress. But the need of the hour is to defeat the fascism of Jayalalitha." Also, given the corruption charges against her, Rao may just go for the DMK. But again, he may not.
