Cyclone 'Tej' Turns Into 'Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm', Likely To Cross Yemen And Oman On October 25

The Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS) Cyclone 'Tej', that is brewing over the Arabian Sea, transformed into an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) on Sunday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. This would be the second cyclonic storm in the Arabian Sea this year.

The storm is likely to cross between Al Ghaidah (Yemen) and Salalah (Oman) in the early hours of October 25. The last cyclone to make landfall in this region was Cyclone Mekunu, over 5 years ago in 2018.

However, meteorologists caution that at times, storms may deviate from the predicted track and intensity, as seen in the case of cyclone Biparjoy, which formed in the Arabian Sea in June and initially moved in a north-northwest direction before changing course to make landfall between Mandvi in Gujarat and Karachi in Pakistan.

According to the weather forecast agency, the very severe cyclonic storm Tej intensified to extremely severe cyclonic storm and lay about 160 km east-southeast of Socotra (Yemen), 540 km south-southeast of Salalah (Oman) and 550 km southeast of Al Ghaidah (Yemen). The storm is likely to move northwest and cross coasts between Al Ghaidah and Salalah around noon of October as a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm (VSCS).

VSCS Tej over WC & SW AS intensified to ESCS moved NW at 0830 hrs IST of 22 Oct about 160 km E-SE of Socotra (Yemen), 540 km S-SE of Salalah (Oman) & 550 km SE of Al Ghaidah (Yemen). Likely to move NW and cross coasts between Al Ghaidah & Salalah around noon of 24 Oct as a VSCS.
— India Meteorological Department (@Indiametdept) October 22, 2023

The storm is likely to move northwestwards till October 24. It is then likely to cross Yemen-Oman Coasts Between Al Ghaidah
and Salalah, close to east of Al Ghaidah, at around 11:30 am of October 24.

Will the storm affect Gujarat?

Private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said that a majority of models indicate the storm is heading for the Yemen-Oman coast. However, the Global Forecast System models suggest a recurvature while positioned over the deep central parts of the Arabian Sea, steering the system towards Pakistan and the Gujarat coast, it said.

Meanwhile, an IMD official said that the cyclone will not have any impact on Gujarat. "Since the cyclone would move towards west-northwest, it may not have any impact on Gujarat (which lies to the east). Weather in Gujarat will remain dry for the next seven days," said Manorama Mohanty, director of the Meteorological Centre in Ahmedabad.

The state's relief commissioner Alok Kumar Pandey said as of now there was no threat as the storm was heading towards Gujarat.