Burns and scars: Mousavi supporters set fire to a barricade in Tehran
Even the Indian foreign policy establishment feels the dispute is likely to get resolved soon. Iran-watchers in South Block feel the tussle for political supremacy is between those (represented by Mousavi) who wish for a greater accommodation with the US and its allies and those (represented by Ahmedinejad) who are opposed to this reform. "What we see in Iran is the culmination of a very serious debate that has been going on now for years between these two different groups," says a senior MEA official.
There's a feeling in South Block that even those countries which have backed the reformists (like the US and Israel) know that it's Ahmedinejad who won the June 12 election. Former Indian diplomat M.K. Bhadrakumar told Outlook, "The reason why they want the turmoil in Iran to continue for a while is to make sure Ahmedinejad is on the backfoot when negotiations between Iran and the US begin. A resurgent and confident Ahmedinejad is not in their interest." In its own security interest, the US under President Barack Obama is likely to engage with Iran soon.
But is Ahmedinejad good for India? Some say the Iranian leader has always been an admirer of India for its independent foreign policy and track-record for fair play in the international arena. This, in many ways, is typical of leaders in Iran which, like India, is an ancient civilisation bound together by strong historical ties. But Indo-Iranian relations did come under strain after Ahmedinejad was elected president for the first time in '05. Keen to get the nuclear deal from the US, India voted against Iran's controversial nuclear programme at the International Atomic Energy Agency four years ago. And though traditional Indo-Iran ties have mended since then, Iranian leaders rarely miss an opportunity to niggle India for its IAEA stand.
Currently, both countries are closely engaged in a gas pipeline, via Pakistan, to bring Iranian gas to India. They have also managed to work out transit routes for taking Indian goods to Afghanistan, much to the chagrin of Islamabad. No wonder India wants to wait and see how the crisis plays out. "You don't interfere with comments on countries like Iran, which are civilisational societies," an MEA official said. "It'll only harden positions." Considering India burnt its fingers once with Iran in the IAEA, it isn't likely to repeat the same mistake again.
