Good Cop, Bad Cop

There were no heart transplants or emergency procedures performed by the Americans on Pakistan, just a good dose of the constant care and advice they provide an ailing patient. But it was administered with some firmness. US secretary of state Colin Powell didn't waste any time once India announced its 12 CBMs. He was working the phones before the Pakistanis knew what hit them. He called Yashwant Sinha in Brussels to congratulate him and the Indian foreign minister told him he would "wait" for a formal response before declaring a Kodak moment. Powell then traced Khursheed M. Kasuri in Spain the same day to say the US was looking forward to movement on the latest initiative. He said he hoped for a positive response and quick action. The message was clear: Pakistan should move or it will continue to be equated with all that's negative.

When the Americans express "hope", it often becomes incumbent upon others to try to fulfil it. "We have been after them for a long time but we knew it would be a political decision. It wasn't one thing that broke the impasse," said a modest US official. But he agreed that Musharraf may have decided it was about time to do something positive since his country was being consistently slammed in the western press for aiding terrorists. "He has become more identified with terrorism. He doesn't like that India takes the lion's share of good publicity." Another US official said there was "no arm-twisting" and that things just "reached a level of momentum". He specifically denied there were any threats to turn off the aid tap to Pakistan.

But pressure did come in the form of Richard Armitage, deputy secretary of state and the bad cop to Powell's good. He visited Islamabad in October and flatly told the general's men that the US could not afford the risk of a nuclear conflict in South Asia. Peace must be made, militants must be reined in. Armitage repeated the blunt message to foreign secretary Riaz Khokhar who visited Washington in early November. Sources said Khokhar looked positively "down" after the encounter unlike in the past when he would speak confidently about US-Pak relations. He was apparently told Pakistan had not done enough to stop cross-border terrorism in Kashmir.

Within days of Khokhar's return and critical comments from US ambassador to Pakistan Nancy Powell, Musharraf announced a ban on three militant groups. Diplomatic sources said that Armitage's message, being beamed at Pakistan from multiple directions, amounted to this: Pakistan must give up jehad as an option. "We have been telling them the militant groups are an internal danger to Pakistan," a US official said. Armitage is also believed to have told Pakistan that the sanctity of the LoC must be maintained even though the US may not ask for a formal recognition. The calculation is that if both sides respect the LoC and Pakistan stops infiltration, there is less likelihood of war.

The recent spurt in acerbic anti-US commentary in the right-wing Pakistani press is an indication of how strong a dose the US has administered. Much ink has flowed on the mounting US pressure and on how Islamabad was being "forced" to accept the LoC as border.