According to the weather department, there is a 66% probability of rainfall being either below normal or deficient this season, driven primarily by the expected development of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific in the latter half of the monsoon
India Meteorological Department forecasts monsoon at 92% LPA, signalling below-normal rainfall
El Niño raises 66–70% probability of weak monsoon this season
Rain-fed crops most vulnerable, with low irrigation coverage of 19–44%
Deficient monsoon could push food inflation up by 0.4 percentage points
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