Nepal Fact File
Economic Indicators
- GNI per capita (2013): $730
- GDP growth rate (2013): 4
- India-Nepal bilateral trade (2012-13): $4.7 billion
- Agriculture (35% of GDP); Industry (16% ); Services (49%)
- Inflation (%) 1990-2012: 7.3
- Non-agriculture jobs: 12.6%
- Self-employed in farm: 61.3%
- Farm jobs: 2.8%
- Entrepreneurs: 12.7%
Social Indicators
- Population: 27.8 million
- Adult literacy (2012): 57.4
- Poverty rate (2010): 25.2
- Life expectancy at birth in years (2012): 68
- Under-5 mortality rate or U5MR (2012): 42
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Natural disasters, such as earthquakes, are great “physical and psychological” levellers, observed Janet Borland, director of the Japanese Studies Programme at the Hong Kong University, in a seminal 2006 paper. The resulting devastation of a city or region and the psychological weakening of its population, however, she went on to point out, also present the opportunity to “reorder society”. Such an opportunity, she said, “is unparalleled by any other historical event except perhaps war and with increasing regularity throughout much of the 20th century nation-states have used disasters as a pretext to secure long-held political goals.”
Though Borland made her argument with reference to the 1923 Kanto earthquake that destroyed much of Tokyo and neighbouring areas and the subsequent reconstruction and nation-building exercise the Japanese undertook, her observations should hold relevant even for the recent natural calamity that has struck Nepal.
It is almost a week now since the tiny Himalayan kingdom was hit by a devastating earthquake—7.9 on the Richter scale—rocking capital Kathmandu, Pokhra and large parts of Nepal. It reduced to rubble several buildings, many of them UN-designated heritage structures, and affected more than eight million people, according to a UN estimate. The death toll, already feared to be inching close to the 10,000 mark, could climb yet higher in the coming days.
The international community’s response was sharp and swift. India and China, the two major regional players, along with other South Asian nations as well as the international biggies rushed in with doctors, medicines, food and other relief material. Despite this vast humanitarian effort, none of this aid is being able to reach the tiny hamlets and remote villages of Nepal. Inclement weather and damaged roads have made it impossible for rescue teams or aid to reach these parts.
The question then arises: will Nepal be able to bounce back? In the context of other countries, this might be framed as a question of how long it would take for recovery. The question assumes added poignancy in the case of Nepal. This is the 16th poorest country in the world, woeful in every social index, be it health, education, water or sanitation. Basic infrastructure like roads, transportation, hospitals is either non-existent or in very poor shape.
More than anything else, however, it is the bickering politicians that are Kathmandu’s bigger tragedy. Ever engaged in brinkmanship, nepotism and spending most of their time blocking rivals both within and outside their own political corners, they have now sparked protests on the streets of the capital, a manifestation of the rising disappointment and frustration with the government and political leadership.
“There is no sense of ownership or accountability to the people among political parties,” rues Kathmandu-based political commentator Yubaraj Ghimire. He points out how such a major disaster has taken place yet the parliament in Nepal has not even met. “Political leaders are scared to face the people and the anger against them is visible to everyone on the streets of Kathmandu.”
The protest, though, is also a release of the pent-up frustrations of the Nepali people. When they had a king, his favours and benevolence were distributed among a section of the Kathmandu elite and loyalists elsewhere. There was nothing for the common man. The Maoists challenged this very system, chucked out the monarchy, declared the nation a Republic in 2008, but once in power, they too adopted lavish lifestyles and became the new rajas, while the larger public remained where it was. The Maoists and their partners from the Madhesi parties got their comeuppance in the 2013 elections, and a new coalition led by the Nepali Congress and the United Marxist-Leninist (UML) came to power. But two years down the line, no change seems visible. One of the major tasks before political leaders—writing a new constitution for the country—has been stalled since 2008 due to the bickering over the nature of federalism, political system and representative government. Though the term of the Constituent Assembly has been extended, the task seems unlikely to be completed even under the new regime.
If bouncing back for Nepal really means business as usual, it can hardly be a comforting thought to its people. It will be more pertinent to ask if Nepal will merely return to status quo ante or attain new positives.
Back to Janet Borland then. The optimism she expressed in her paper for opportunities before the political leadership has an example closer home to Nepal, in neighbouring India. In 1950, when the massive 8.6 Medog earthquake felled Assam, the Indian administration under Jawaharlal Nehru not only helped the people of the state get back on their feet with sustained rehabilitation work but also managed to reach out to far-flung areas in the Northeast, which till then had been out of New Delhi’s reach. The creation of the Northeastern Frontier Agency, a region that later took the shape of the state of Arunachal Pradesh, can be traced back to New Delhi’s response to the Assam earthquake.
Escape route People wait to board buses leaving Kathmandu. (Photograph by Reuters, From Outlook 11 May 2015)
Will the earthquake in Nepal then be the much-needed jolt to wake up the country’s political leadership and force them to focus on the all-important task of nation-building?
The jury among the band of former Indian ambassadors who have served in Nepal is still out. “This does provide the political leaders of Nepal with an opportunity to focus on the task of nation-building,” concedes Jayant Prasad. But K.V. Rajan, who served as India’s ambassador in Nepal in the mid-’90s, is more clear-eyed in his pessimism. He feels it’s more wishful thinking than a reflection of ground reality. “For the past few days I’ve been trying to see whether the political leadership can come together to ensure the smooth and efficient running of the relief and rescue operations. But unfortunately that has not happened.”
If there are small mercies, they haven’t come from the political leadership. The let-up in rains and 24 hours without tremors on Thursday evening allowed people to go back to their homes—or what was left of them. Shops and businesses too showed signs of getting back to work. Power and water supply, businessmen claim, have been restored in most of the earthquake-affected areas.
“Hopefully the weather will hold,” says Abhimanyu Poddar of Surya ITC in Nepal. “People are still recovering. Many have spent more than three days in the open with tremors continuing and the downpour adding to their misery.” Surya ITC is among the few large-sized Indian-owned businesses having a manufacturing base in Nepal. Situated mostly in Morang or Birgunj industrial corridors, which escaped the severity of the earthquake, these manufacturing units are relatively unscathed.
Most Indian companies with industrial units in Nepal continue to pursue the activities of the parent companies. Over the years, many have managed to create a domestic market for their products though India remains their major market. Dabur here, for instance, exports 70 per cent of its produce like juices to India, according to a company spokesperson.
The Indian government’s prompt response has made Indian businessmen happy as they feel it will help them earn goodwill among Nepalis. The Indian corporate sector too has come forward in a big way to help with relief measures. “We are very concerned about the disaster and feel a sense of obligation to stand by the people of Nepal. The industry is putting a very strong foot forward,” said Sanjeev Goenka, chairman of the RP-Sanjiv Goenka Group, who is coordinating cii’s relief efforts from New Delhi. “There are many companies which are coming forward with food, tents, medicines, volunteers, doctors, etc. Industry is looking at very strong and proactive relief work in Nepal of multiple kinds.”
People in the travel and tourism industry point out that the disaster has struck Nepal in peak Everest climbing season when sports adventurers and mountaineers flock there in large numbers. It is also when Indians visit Nepal in thousands. Traders do good business around this time. Last year, an avalanche had killed several sherpas. The earthquake this year will ensure the Everest climbing season will again be a washout.
Over the last few years, many more Indian infrastructure majors like gmr have started seeking government projects in Nepal, including hydropower. Today, they face bigger competition from major Chinese companies who too have moved into infrastructure areas, undertaking roads, highways and power projects in Nepal.
With the self-employed in the agriculture sector accounting for over 70 per cent of the labour force, Nepal depends on India for most of its foreign trade. Of the $4.7 billion bilateral trade, Nepal’s exports were $579.8 million, while imports from India were $4.17 billion in 2012-13. Petroleum products form a major chunk of India’s exports to Nepal.
But will the optimism shown by the Indian business community or other entities for Nepal’s future be matched by the people and political leadership of the country?
“We need massive and sustained support from the international community for the challenge that we face,” says Minendra Rijal, Nepal’s minister for information and communication. He says an all-party meeting will be convened soon to monitor the rescue and rehabilitation work. He, however, refused to comment on whether this proposed arrangement could also work between political forces to tackle other major issues in future. “As of now, we are only concentrating on the immediate task of rescue and rehabilitation,” he said.
With the focus of both the Nepali politicians and the international community on measures to deal with quake-related development, Rajan thinks there is every chance of the issue of writing the constitution being put on the backburner.
So what is the way out and who can push the political leaders in Nepal to the negotiating table so that they not only complete the task of writing the constitution but also work together with each other on transforming Nepal. Some sections suggest that India, which has huge stake in the stability of Nepal and also has clout among various political parties, should nudge the political players in Nepal to take this opportunity and start focusing on nation-building.
“In Nepal steps that India take will have to be thought out carefully,” says Rakesh Sood, another former Indian ambassador to Kathmandu. “Otherwise a nudge from India can soon be seen as a shove by people in Nepal.”
Hopefully, the leadership in Delhi will listen to this sage advice and avoid overstepping in areas that, despite abiding Indian interest, are seen largely as the internal affairs of Nepal—certainly a smaller neighbour but also a sovereign nation.
By Pranay Sharma with Lola Nayar
