Why Are Cold Waves Not Part Of The Global Climate Change Discourse? How Can We Prepare Better?

It is the season of gloomy binaries, where one section of the populace is cosying up in layers of blankets in heated bedrooms and thronging luxury villas in hill stations, and another battles the chilly, windy dawns wrapped in thin shawls next to small fires. As the fog clouds our visions, the biting cold certainly clears out these contrasts to the observer. 

The Science behind Cold Waves in North India

Parts of North India are presently blanketed in dense fog under the grip of a severe cold wave. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) declares a cold wave when the minimum temperature is equal to or less than 10 degrees Celsius at a weather station in the plains and is 4.5-to 6.4 degrees Celsius below the normal temperature for that period. 

A cold wave is different from a cold day or a couple of cold days stuffed together, as highlighted by Vineet Kumar Singh, Climate Research Scientist at Jeju National University, South Korea, formerly affiliated with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune. Speaking to Outlook, he explained what triggers cold wave conditions in north India. 

Singh says, “The impact of western disturbances is the most important parameter for the arrival and sustenance of cold waves. Once cold north-westerly winds sweep through the region, the temperature drop starts and when the gap between two western disturbances is large, severe cold wave conditions persist. A lack of western disturbances results in lower precipitation, due to which temperature moderation is stalled.” 

How climate change causes more, intense cold waves

While chilly winters in the region are seen as a regular phenomenon this time of the year, biting cold conditions have raised concerns of weather extremities getting more frequent and intense. December 2020 was one of the coldest winters recorded in north India, wherein four cold waves were witnessed in that month, as per a report in Down To Earth. This was attributed to strong La Nina conditions in the Central Pacific Ocean, which simply means cooler than normal sea surface temperatures, a periodic occurrence. But even though cold wave conditions have turned sporadic, Singh cautions that as per trends from the last two decades, winter seasons have in fact shortened in the region, while summers have elongated. 

Short-term weather extremities combined with long-term slowing of climatic phenomenon is attributable to the impact of global warming, Singh suggests. 

“Right now, we are seeing warnings of cold waves flashing on our screens, but just a few months back we read alerts of extreme heat waves across North India. Climate change has exacerbated heat waves,” says Singh. 

Cold Waves: A visible symptom of climate change

This view was also seconded by Dr. Tanvi Arora, Earth Scientist at the CSIR-National Geophysical Research Institute. 

Arora notes, “Climate change is a decade-and centuries-long impact of certain daily and monthly anthropogenic activities that end up altering the earth systems. Hydrological cycles are severely impacted by temperature changes, and in turn also severely affect temperatures.”

In conversation with Outlook, Arora further elaborates, “Climate change is actually an effect of various interrelated phenomena. Unplanned urbanisation has disrupted flora and fauna. Every time we look out of our window, a new skyscraper pierces the sky, higher than the one on its side, but these concrete jungles come up at the cost of forests being cleared, small water bodies being diminished. It results in what’s called the ‘urban heat island effect’ wherein temperatures are as high as around 5 degrees in areas having concrete buildings, which are incapable of absorbing heat and instead trap heat.

“These short-term temperature disruptions due to human activities result in sustained global warming. So, while cold waves do not seem to have a direct link to climate change, indiscriminate temperature rise expedites melting of Arctic ice caps results in severe cold waves. As the cryosphere —portions of Earth's surface where water is in solid form— gets disrupted, the cold waves become more frequent. So in some ways, cold waves are more a byproduct or symptom of climate change.” 

Cold waves elude for global climate change discourse 

Perhaps this explains why the global climate change discourse has had a disproportionate focus on heat waves and government policies too seek to mitigate the impact of extreme heat, a level of attention that is elusive in case of extreme cold. 

On this, Singh said, “As India is a sub-tropical country, we have a longer summer season, and heat waves tend to last longer and have a more debilitating impact on our lives. In contrast, cold waves are not as persistent and usually subside quickly in a span of three to four days maximum. But extreme hot temperatures last for nearly two months in northern India and so research and funding tend to be earmarked for finding solutions and ways out to deal with the latter.”

Extreme cold tends to affect the higher reaches in Kashmir and other regions that garner state interventions and attention for their political climate more than the climate extremities. 

When asked what kind of innovative mechanisms can the government adopt for those battling extreme cold in such regions, Singh said, “The Indian government can take cues from not just Western nations, but also Asian proximates like South Korea and Japan. Here, the houses, offices, and other buildings are embedded with heating systems, wherein pipelines are drilled underneath the floor or ceilings, and steam/boiling hot water is passed through them. Through the principle of heat conduction, the rooms become heated and comfortable. Such an intervention, however, is costly and requires a lot of investment, which makes its feasibility questionable in a country like India.” 

Perhaps besides the funding, what such an intervention needs to be driven by is political will at a time when no matter how cold the weather is outside, leaders shrug each other a cold shoulder standing next to each other. 

What’s lowering visibility: Fog, Smog, Adaptability?

But the winter chills are only one of the twin challenges that North India can’t seem to look past. Other than the dense fog lowering our visibility, the second challenge is worsening air quality. The two have coincided to the extent that one often wonders what one is being blinded by, is it fog, is it smog, or is it the need to adapt.

When asked if there are any interlinkages between tides of cold waves and rising air pollution, Singh said, “While no direct enforcement can be observed between the two, because pollutants are omnipresent in the atmosphere, but stable weather conditions and low wind speed during winter season tend to cause these pollutants to persist in the lower atmosphere, leading to worsening air quality.” 

Arora, however, makes an interesting point at this juncture. While she echoes the sentiment that there exists no direct causal linkage between the two, she tells Outlook, “Naturally, as weather extremities test humankind’s tolerance, we seek adaptability. Protective measures such as radiators, heaters, angeethis, and small bonfires on every nook and corner become a regular site, which significantly upscale the greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. In some ways, the colder it gets, the more is the heating demand, the more are the emissions, the greater is not only the pollution but also global warming, the more the earth systems get affected and this causes an infinite loop of doom!”    

Gearing up for the Multifaceted Impact of Cold Waves

Besides the difficulties that weather extremes result in for human activities, with the homeless struggling to survive the shivers in North India this week, frequent cold waves are also incredibly destructive for agriculture and can potentially even endanger food security in the country. 

As Singh explains it, erratic winters can impact crop productivity. 

“North India’s food bowl, Haryana and Punjab, witness extremely cold temperatures in this season, and cold waves can cause frost formation which can severely curtail yields. Rabi crops, and most importantly, wheat yields, are affected by excessive frost formation on cold winter nights which causes plant cells to rupture,” says Singh.

In such a scenario, better preparedness is key. In such circumstances, Singh says, “Farmers are advised to irrigate their fields and sprinkle water from time to time, which prevents frost formation.”  

Singh further points out the lags in the system that often cause unintended harm. 

Satirically, he says, “This has become a joke almost that the day the state or district administration announces closure of schools on account of extreme weather, the very next day children sit at home and enjoy pleasant weather. Bas aaj chutti boli hai toh kal se toh dhoop khilegi hi. (Now that they have declared the holiday today, sun will be up from tomorrow).” 

This, Singh laments, is due to delayed decision-making.

He says, “The IMD issues alerts well in advance and forecasts are usually shared for the next three-four days, but the district officials wait until the harsh weather becomes visible and then declare holidays. By then, the peak is missed and the damages and casualties have already occurred.

“Perhaps one way to improve timely interventions would be for the IMD to raise the frequency of alerts and make them progressively cautioning, such that alerts highlight the gravity of the situation to the layman and action is taken efficiently.” 

Making warnings more people-friendly, practical

But, at the same time, there is a dire need for warnings to be made more comprehensible and people friendly, wherein changes in scientific parameters, including temperatures, wind speed, humidity etc. are made to reveal more about their impact on human activity in order for people to better prepare for any casualties whatsoever. 

Singh notes, “When alerting farmers, we have to inform them what are the likely consequences of unseasonal rain, or frost formation, or sudden drop in temperatures, and the like. Alerts should be more in the form of practical warnings, jo yeh samjha sake ki mausam badalne se unka nuksaan kya hoga (which may explain how they'd be harmed by changing weather)? Simply listing out weather indicators and their fluctuations does not serve the purpose to nudge timely interventions. Slowly and steadily things are changing, but as we say, there is always room for improvement!”

Weather extremities such as cold wave conditions have a multifaceted impact on not just human lives, but the Earth's systems as a whole. The need of the hour is to ascertain, comprehend, and act upon each prong of the issue in order to really swim through the tough tides.