The New India Map (Political)

The political map of India is being inexorably redrawn as the Delimitation Commission adjusts the geographical boundaries of 543 Lok Sabha and 4,033 assembly constituencies and reassigns reserved seats. In the process, the political future of many a high-profile neta could well be rewritten. Small wonder then that the country's political establishment views the exercise with apprehension.

A note of urgency accompanies the heartburn over the changes proposed by the commission in the five states headed for elections later this year: Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram. "These states are being taken up on a priority basis. The delimitation process is likely to be completed within five months," says Election Commissioner B.B. Tandon, ex-officio member of the commission.

Among the leaders likely to be adversely affected are Union labour minister Sahib Singh Verma, Congress Working Committee member Natwar Singh, Rajasthan pcc chief Girija Vyas, former MP CM S.C. Shukla, Congress spokesperson Satyavrat Chaturvedi, Chhattisgarh bjp chief Raman Singh, MP deputy CM Subhash Yadav and Union minister of state for hrd Jas Kaur Meena.

The Jat ex-royalty of Natwar Singh's family will lose out in Bharatpur, which is proposed to be reserved for SCs—so that he (or son Jagat, who contested in 1999) can't stand from there. "You can't oppose reservation for SCs. I welcome it and so does Jagat," the veteran Congressman says philosophically. Likewise, Chittorgarh will be a closed chapter for Union FM Jaswant Singh if it's reserved for STs.

Not everyone is as sanguine as Natwar Singh. Girija Vyas, whose Udaipur seat is to be reserved for STs, says: "The Congress has raised 70 objections, including Bikaner, Jodhpur, Dausa, Udaipur and Sawai Madhopur." For Buta Singh, the boot is on the other foot. His stronghold of Jalore, an SC seat, may be dereserved. In Jas Kaur Meena's case, her constituency of Sawai Madhopur continues to be reserved but becomes an SC rather than an ST seat, which means she will have to find another political nest. For Congress veteran Arjun Singh, the proposed dereservation of Sidhi (Lok Sabha), his bastion, can only be good news.

In the capital, Sahib Singh will suffer. His carefully nurtured Outer Delhi seat is being done away with and changed to a drastically pruned 'North-West Delhi'—reserved for SCs. It's a double whammy because it negates former Outer Delhi MP Sajjan Kumar's hopes of a comeback. Banished by the Congress after being named as an accused in the 1984 riots, he chose to lie low until his acquittal earlier this year. It's a dark irony that the commission might scuttle his comeback bid more effectively than the hundreds of riot widows who have been demonstrating against his acquittal.

Delimitation is a constitutional imperative. Based on the premise of equal representation for equal segments of the population in the legislative bodies, the Constitution mandates readjustment in the delimitation of constituencies after each census. The exercise was faithfully carried out in 1951, 1961 and 1971. But in 1976, Parliament decided to freeze the number of Lok Sabha seats in each state until 2000. To that end, the 42nd Constitution Amendment Act was passed. Loud protests from the southern states, who said they ought not to be penalised for their good performance in population stabilisation vis-a-vis the north, ensured that the freeze was maintained in the Delimitation Act of 2002.

But there are some objections. Delhi bjp chief Madan Lal Khurana points out that delimitation is a once-in-a-decade process. "Why then is it being done on the basis of 10-year-old data? The population of Delhi in 1991 was 94 lakh. Now, it's over 1.4 crore. Why can't we have it done on the basis of the 2001 census, which will be published by June this year?"

Delhi has seen its share of disputes.Two sets of proposals have been presented to the commission—by state election commissioner M.P. Tyagi and by the state government. Tyagi, as a commission member, reportedly tried to push his proposal but was out-voted by the other two members: chairman Justice Kuldip Singh and Tandon. One of the allegations doing the rounds is that Tyagi's proposal would have favoured the bjp far more than that of the commission, which is in consonance with the state government's proposal.

Likewise, in Chhattisgarh, there are allegations of rigging the delimitation process, with a senior Congress leader pointing out that chief minister Ajit Jogi's two bugbears have been sidelined: S.C. Shukla, his main rival within the Congress, and Raman Singh of the bjp. Another potential victim is education minister Satnarain Sharma, whose Vidhan Sabha seat is being subsumed by two neighbouring constituencies. "There's intense resentment at the outrageous manner in which this is being done," says an MP.

Tandon says the implied allegation of gerrymandering is unfounded as the commission has little discretion and is following a transparent procedure. "It's the Speaker who nominates the associate members of the commission, with due regard for the composition of the House. Nor does the commission have any role in the appointment of the state election officers. Dissenting notes from the members will be appended to the draft proposals which will be published in the gazette and in vernacular newspapers. Public hearings will be held in three or four places in each state. Representations will be invited. Only then will the proposals be finalised," he says. Reserved seats are declared strictly on the basis of population, Tandon adds.

The commission has concluded its discussions in the case of Rajasthan and will be publishing its draft report shortly. One of the objections raised by associate members concerns the 'clustering' of reserved seats. Observes veteran politician Nawal Kishore Sharma, "We have three ST seats in the same area where Bhils dominate and none at all in the Meena area. We also have clustering of SC seats—Sawai Madhopur and Bharatpur, and Ganganagar and Bikaner."

The working papers for Delhi and Chhattisgarh are under discussion while that for MP will be circulated in the coming week. Indications are that Khajuraho, represented by Congress MP Satyavrat Chaturvedi, will be declared reserved and so will the Vidhan Sabha seat of Subhash Yadav, Khargone. bjp MP Vijay Khandelwal may possibly find Betul reserved. The proposal to shift a key assembly segment—Raghogarh—from Lakshman Singh's Lok Sabha constituency of Rajgarh to Guna, MP Jyotiraditya Scindia's seat, will create new twists. It will make the terrain tougher for Lakshman, who is MP CM Digvijay Singh's brother.

Most mlas want to hang on to their votebanks in their village, ward, tehsil and revenue circle. "No one nurses the entire constituency. You nurse a caste group, community or area. If that is taken away, then you've lost your support base," says an mla. Rama Pilot, the late Rajesh Pilot's wife, may have a harder time winning Dausa because of the decrease in her Gujjar votebank due to the readjustment. Rajasthan chief minister Ashok Gehlot's stronghold, Jodhpur, might see crucial changes. Gehlot reportedly stands to lose minority and obc votes.

One cause for heartburn among the MPs and mlas is the increase in the number of reserved seats and the corresponding decrease in general seats. For example, now there are three extra reserved assembly seats in Rajasthan and five less in Chhattisgarh. "If the overall number of seats in each state has been frozen so that they are not penalised for population stabilisation, should that not apply to the reserved seats as well?" questions an angry MP.And while there is a case for freezing Lok Sabha seats, the same logic should not apply to Vidhan Sabha seats which can easily be increased or decreased depending on population shifts.

More 'urban changes' are expected. Bhopal and Jaipur are likely to get two more Vidhan Sabha constituencies each. Some constituencies are disappearing and new ones being created. Chandni Chowk and Karol Bagh in Delhi will vanish, as will Bayana and Salumber in Rajasthan.

Politicians may crib at the process of delimitation but some feel it's a positive step and could throw up newer, younger leaders as pocketboroughs are disrupted. Says Nawal Kishore Sharma, "It's a true test of a good politician."