Whispers In The Dark

First, there was the French oil tanker bombing off the coast of Yemen, then US marines in Kuwait came under fire, and now the devastating Bali blast. The triple terrorist attacks in the last fortnight have raised the spectre of Islamist militants emerging again from the gorges of Afghanistan to target western interests abroad. Is Al Qaeda regrouping to launch what many call the Islamic resistance to the United States?

It's true Osama bin Laden had called on the Afghans and Muslims elsewhere to fight the US and its Western allies. Intermittent statements giving a clarion call to the 'faithful' continue to come out in his name. But, most observers feel, it won't be easy for Al Qaeda to revive its command structure—the training camps were bombed out last year, and the Taliban's collapse means Afghanistan is no longer a viable sanctuary.

Most Al Qaeda leaders are on the run. Their priority, including bin Laden and his aide Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri's, is to survive the American search operation. Nobody even knows whether bin Laden is alive. The capture of important Al Qaeda operatives like Abu Zubaida and Ramzi bin al-Shaiba in Pakistan testifies to the difficulty Islamic militants now encounter in the country.

But there are Al Qaeda cells worldwide, most of them operating on their own, even organising attacks. In fact, these cells were functioning independently even before September 11, owing only ideological allegiance to bin Laden. An impression that Al Qaeda is regrouping has gained currency because of a spurt in missile attacks on US-led coalition troops in Afghanistan. Military convoys have been ambushed, and booby-traps are no longer infrequent. It seems the Pentagon hasn't acknowledged these attacks because it fears demoralising its soldiers operating in inhospitable, alien territory.

The attacks, though, haven't inflicted heavy casualty on US troops. For one, the Soviet-era missiles are rudimentary; often the US hi-tech surveillance systems locate and defuse the missiles before they are fired from their remote mountain sites. But there have also been instances of rockets landing near garrisons and airports. In contrast, ambushes and landmine explosions have been more successful.

The increase in attacks doesn't mean Al Qaeda is regrouping either. It's more a coming together of all those opposed to the western military presence, initiating a resistance movement. And even this is incipient. Isolated resistance cells are emerging in Pashtoon-populated areas in Afghanistan as a consequence of the US bombings which have killed civilians and the brutal house searches that violate the privacy and honour of the conservative Pashtoons. Former Taliban military commanders such as Saifullah Mansoor and Jalaluddin Haqqani are reportedly the inspiration. These Pashtoon leaders feel alienated at the strategy of the US military to strengthen the non-Pashtoon Northern Alliance that dominates the Hamid Karzai government.

What seems to have fuelled the fear of Al Qaeda regrouping is the nature of the triple attacks of the last three weeks—since these fit neatly into bin Laden's agenda, his followers are suspected of the crime.