The Puppets-In-Chief

Unless there are last-minute surprises, the October 10 elections will most likely return a hung National Assembly, consequently throwing wide open the race for the post of prime minister. Leading the pack of prime ministerial aspirants will be the speaker of the dissolved National Assembly, Ilhai Bux Soomro.

Did we hear you say, Soomro who? Soomro's tryst with destiny began in 1997, when as speaker of the National Assembly (NA) he welcomed Queen Elizabeth II to Parliament. Seemingly oblivious of colonial history, Soomro gushed, "I'm your loyal servant. Even my father was your loyal and faithful servant."

Fealty comes easy to Soomro, a trait the military considers a virtue. He also has another advantage—he hails from the 'prime minister's province' of Sindh from where, but for the experiment of Nawaz Sharif, who belonged to Punjab, the military establishment has selected PMs. This would be then packaged as a sagacious method of empowering smaller, deprived provinces.

What favours Soomro is also the guilt complex of the army establishment. It sent one Sindhi prime minister (Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto) to the gallows and summarily ousted another two, Mohammad Khan Junejo and Benazir Bhutto. In choosing Soomro, the military could hope to expiate for its crime. As a PML(Q) member, Soomro neither has the independence nor the popularity to think of defying his masters. What's more, he's allergic to the ppp and Benazir Bhutto.

PML(Q) leader Mian Azhar is also an aspirant. But many in the military establishment feel Azhar's nomination could polarise the political class, blatantly partisan as it may seem. With the military regime's desperation to legitimise its concept of democracy, it's believed Azhar as PM would goad all other parties into sitting on the Opposition benches. Also, Azhar faces opposition from the faction of Mian Mohammad Kasuri, who became popular with his opposition to Sharif's Islamic legislations. Kasuri openly says, "If the corps commanders have a say in the nomination of a future PM, then I will win this slot." No wonder many feel Soomro could emerge as a compromise candidate from the PML(Q).

Another PML(Q) candidate for PM is Zafar Jamali. A tribal leader of the Jamali clan in Balochistan, his family has been faithful to the establishment—and amply awarded for their services. From the North West Frontier Province you have another aspirant, Iftiqar Gillani, who was once the ppp's legal eagle. He has shifted loyalties several times between Bhutto and Sharif, and is now glued to the king's party.

Recently, though, there has been much talk of a deal between the military regime and pppp leader Makhdoom Amin Fahim. Like Soomro, he belongs to Sindh, lacks charisma and desists from straying—in the military establishment's eyes—to democratic extremism. He is also a known commodity to Musharraf, the two having held several public and private meetings.

The deal between the military establishment and Fahim envisages the PML(Q) endorsing his nomination. As the party of Gen Musharraf, it is argued, the PML(Q) can scarcely defy his order to vote in favour of Fahim. His name has surfaced because many in the military establishment think a PPPP prime minister can provide legitimacy to the new constitutional arrangement Musharraf has foisted on the nation. Dependent on the PML(Q) for survival, Fahim wouldn't be a threat to Musharraf.

But for all this, don't be surprised to find a dark horse pip the hot favourites to the post of prime minister.