The Narrow Mountain Pass

The moment of truth has finally arrived. Billed as the biggest political event in Pakistan after the exile of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the imminent visit of the All-Parties Hurriyat Conference (aphc) to Pakistan will be the first real opportunity for the world to see how Kashmiris on both sides of the border grapple with the contentious issue. This in itself is a significant departure considering that, till very recently, answers to the Kashmir problem were expected to be provided solely by either New Delhi or Islamabad. The involvement of the Kashmiris as the third party to the dispute has now been firmed up.

But what is decidedly the moment of reckoning for the Kashmiri leadership has several imponderables. For one, observers here feel, it'll be a strange sight to see the elderly and more seasoned politicians who comprise the aphc delegation (Abdul Ghani Lone, Syed Ali Shah Geelani, Maulvi Abbas Ansari, Sheikh Abdul Aziz and even Mirwaiz Umer Farooq) sit at the table with the relatively younger and more passionate gun-toting jehadis. Will they be able to jointly fashion a coherent, unanimous opinion on the direction the Kashmiri movement should take?

With the Hurriyat delegation expected to meet all those who impact on the Kashmir scene, disagreements could prove sharp and even intractable. Already a few militant groups here are clamouring that the answer to the Kashmir problem is jehad and not parleys and peace processes, bringing to the fore the divide between the Islamists and those espousing Kashmiri nationalism. For instance, outfits like the Al-Badr are opposed to the peace process. Says its leader, Mushtaq, "We will be giving a befitting reply to the Indians on January 26, their Republic Day. We are against any talks and the aphc should not come to Pakistan as the answer to Kashmir is only jehad and nothing else." But it isn't that Al-Badr leaders will not meet the Hurriyat, the two are anyway in constant touch. "But we are against their talking to Vajpayee as the Indians resort to talks only when under pressure. We'll not silence our guns," says Mushtaq. Groups like the Al-Badr feel that withdrawal of Indian troops from the Valley, acknowledgement that Kashmir is a disputed territory and halt of atrocities against the Kashmiris are preconditions to smoking the peace pipe. While other prominent groups like the Hizbul Mujahideen and the Lashkar-e-Toiba also hold that line, they have now welcomed the Hurriyat leaders and even applauded the aphc for forming a 'balanced team'. In fact, this approval seems to have stemmed from the inclusion of leaders who favour Kashmir's accession to Pakistan.

Despite that, there could still be some shrill noises, and the Hurriyat could find it tough reconciling hardline jehadis' views to their efforts to exploit the opportunity the ceasefire has provided. While the Al-Badr, like the Lashkar, isn't a member of the ujc (United Jehad Council, an alliance of 15 Kashmiri militant organisations), such groups could be given observer status in the forthcoming parleys. And, anyway, the ground reality is that these groups have fought far too long in the Valley to now be ignored and rendered irrelevant. Says Zulfiqar Ali, a bbc journalist based in Muzaffarabad, "If the aphc demands a complete ceasefire, the Pakistan mujahideen won't agree. In my meetings with them, it seemed they might be only ready to scale down their activities to some extent. Some of the other points that might be raised will be whether the Hurriyat should continue to talk to the Indians, the issue of non-Kashmiris fighting in the Valley and the fundamentalist element that Lone talked about after his visit to Pakistan."
The Kashmiri outfits, though, are expected to be more conciliatory. Says barrister Sultan Mehmood Chaudhry, Prime Minister of Azad Kashmir, "We endorse the aphc's future strategy on the Kashmir issue but we reject the ceasefire by the Indian government if it doesn't help Kashmiris to get their birthright of self-determination as peace is impossible without settling the root cause of the conflict between India and Pakistan. The aphc visit is a golden opportunity for India to make peace." Obviously, all eyes are also on the Hizbul's supreme commander, Syed Salahuddin, who is also the chairman of the ujc. Though Kashmiri in character, the Hizbul is the militant wing of the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami of Kashmir and is supported by that party's Pakistani counterpart. In a recent interview, Salahuddin did say that the right to hold negotiations rests with the accepted leadership of Kashmir, including the Hurriyat members and those who have a record of sacrifices over the last 50 years. He, however, went on to add ambiguously, "When the time for negotiations comes, it is immaterial who represents Kashmiris. What is crucial is that the overall interests of the Kashmiri people are kept in mind."

Is this a subtle attempt to ensure that the Hurriyat doesn't take an independent course? For the moment, though, neither the Pakistan government nor the mujahideen groups are spelling out what the modalities or the agenda of the talks between the Hurriyat and Pakistan-based Kashmiri groups will be. The players want to keep their options open, and observers here feel that the Hurriyat's impending visit would be basically a fact-finding mission. Many more visits from both sides will be needed to formulate a common strategy. But there is considerable nervousness among the military and civil bureaucracy about the way the peace process might unfold. For instance, were the Kashmiris to talk to both India and Pakistan on their own terms, there is this fear that the process could go against Pakistan's interests. That, perhaps, is the reason why Geelani had raised the pitch during the last fortnight.

For Islamabad, it is going to be a tightrope walk, though it has indicated that there will be considerable give and take in the future. This message has percolated down to the militant outfits. Obviously, compromises and face-saving solutions will be in the offing. In all, the ball seems to be well and truly rolling and there's plenty of optimism this winter—provided no one plays foul.